President Obama’s emphatic second term victory makes history in many ways, but the real legacy of last night is the opportunity to embed progressive change in America.
Before you think I’ve got high on the fumes of victory or had a few too many cocktails at Obama HQ, the challenges are obviously still great. America remains a divided country, as the closeness of the popular vote shows. The House stays Republican, so therefore does the deadlock.
But anyone who saw Karl Rove’s meltdown on Fox News last night will know just how much defeating President Obama meant to the right.
Defeat would have meant 2008 could have been written off as a blip, a post George W Bush quirk that had no significance after all.
Sure, Obama would still have been the first black president, but on the substance, the notion of hope rather than fear, the politics of optimism and inclusion, would have been defeated.
Now Obamacare is secure. Some House Republicans will no doubt spend time attacking it, but with the Senate remaining Democrat, any such moves will continue to be futile.
But one crucial element of the presidency isn’t just the legislation you pass, it’s the tone that can be set from the bully pulpit of office. And that’s how a second term can also embed change, even if the legislative route remains challenging.
As President Obama said repeatedly on the stump, he believes ‘no matter who you are, no matter what you look like, no matter where you come from, no matter who you love, you can pursue your own happiness and you can make it here in America if you try.’
It’s that social change where the nature of the national debate is felt. Just compare the ballot initiatives of 2012 with 2004.
Marriage equality was supported in referendums in Washington, Minnesota, Maine, Maryland – the first time the law has been changed by a vote of the people rather than decision by the courts or state legislature. And by electing Tammy Baldwin to the Senate, Wisconsin has returned the first openly gay member of the US Senate.
New Hampshire voters were responsible for another first: the entire Congressional and Senate delegation are now women. It was also a treat to see the two Senate candidates who had made the most egregious comments about women’s rights, Todd Aikin (Missouri) and Richard Mourdock (Indiana) both lose their races.
But, here’s the problem. Even today’s papers are speculating on who the runners and riders are going to be in 2016. Obama will be hoping now the campaigning over, he will actually be able to get to do some governing.
So, for his second term, Obama needs a defining narrative of what he wants to use the next four years for. This will be his best defence against claims of being a lame duck president as soon as he in inaugurated next January.
One that manages expectations, that acknowledges change will be incremental, but still shows leadership at home and abroad on the economy, immigration, education, equality and a foreign policy.
It’s a daunting agenda. But as we know, winning sure beats the hell out of losing.
PS My prediction for Obama’s total in the electoral college was 303 or more. Florida may provide us with the ‘or more’, but one thing is certain: fortunately it doesn’t have the significance of my first election night in the States, standing in the rain in Nashville, not knowing what on earth would happen next. Little did we know.
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An existential question
Now Mitt Romney’s defeat is certain, the Republican party will have to face up to their existential problem: winning votes among Latinos.
Of course, one of the Republicans who gets this – and who many outside the Tea Party see as the future for the GOP – is President Bush’s brother Jeb. Among immigration moderates there is a real hope that the Bush brand will have recovered enough for him to run in four years’ time.
Whether that is the case remains to be seen. And we can expect the Tea Party to start briefing that Romney lost because he strayed from the true conservative path.
For the right, Representative Paul Ryan is now the presumptive nominee for the GOP in 2016. But the Republicans have a deep bench, and need to take advantage of that choice to have that fundamental debate about their future they have avoided for too long.
So the only logical conclusion from the 2012 election is that even if the Republican party can’t embrace immigration reform ideologically, they should do out of simple maths. Demographics have shored up states like Nevada, Colorado and Virginia as swing states. In four years, Arizona could well be in that category, and in a couple more cycles, so too could be Texas.
Unless the Republicans recognise there just aren’t enough people in their current coalition, they are doomed to further defeat.
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Remembering Philip Gould, election nights and floral shirts
As we wait for tonight’s election results, forgive me taking a moment on this, his anniversary, and one of the days he would have been his most excitable and entertaining, to remember Philip Gould.
So many tributes have been paid to Philip, by people far more eloquent than myself, but I am privileged to be able to tell a couple stories of my own, having worked with him at both the Labour party and in government.
Philip lived for elections. Not for the process or the sport of them, but for the change they made possible. His was values-based campaigning, based on a fundamental desire, in the words Teddy Kennedy spoke of his brother, to be someone ‘who saw wrong and tried to right it.’
When I was in the junior ranks of party staff, and we were dealing with the latest supposed scandal or other, Philip would pick those times just to pop into Labour HQ, pat us on the back and remind us why we should keep on fighting. Those moments, done modestly and without fanfare, showed the character of the man party staff came to love.
Of course election nights were also when we would see Philip’s amazing collection of garish Hawaiian shirts. My particular favourite was the bright yellow number, covered with red roses. It wasn’t exactly from the Labour Party style guide, but a good effort, nonetheless.
So as we wait for the returns, and so deeply miss Philip’s wit and wisdom, analysis and advice, I’m reminded of a story he would tell of the frustration of being a pollster on election day.
He would tell of Tony Blair’s calls asking him what was going on, how it was looking, to which the only credible answer was: ‘People are voting. Some of them for us, some of them for the other side.’
For Tony, this was clearly unsatisfactory. So he would ring back 30 minutes later and ask the same question.
In the end, Philip would resort to saying things like ‘it’s sunny here, which is good for us’ or ‘it’s rainy there, which is bad for them’ in a desperate attempt to reduce the frequency of the calls.
So as the phones in Chicago and Boston buzz with the same questions, and journalists try to present gossip as facts, let’s take a moment to raise a glass, remember Philip and say ‘thank you’ for all he did to ensure successful election nights for the Labour party.
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Matthew Doyle was a political adviser to Tony Blair from 2005-12. He tweets @doylematthew
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“the true conservative path” yeah what’s that ? three AR15’s in the hall cupboard for ‘personal
protection’ ?