There’s a stench of death around this coalition government. In many ways, the deadly bacillus was incubated from the start, from the moment the rose garden love-in took place in June 2010. The presence of the Liberal Democrats gave life to this Tory-led government, but will also bring about its death. But the Grim Reaper haunts this government not merely because of the death-watch beetles gnawing at its timbers. It is starting to look and feel like a government on its last legs. It behaves like a government on a downward curve. In short, it has adopted the Seven Habits of Ineffectual Governance.

The first habit is rowing within itself. All governments comprise politicians whose egos are not matched by their talents; this one is no exception. The default of most politicians is to pick fights, seek dividing lines and gain tactical advantage by besting their enemies. Within the coalition, of course, we are now used to Liberal Democrat and Tory ministers briefing journalists against one another. For the Lobby, it’s the gift that keeps on giving. But now we are starting to see the Tories fighting among themselves. Mark Reckless MP, the leader of the revolt last week, has claimed a cabinet minister considered resigning over Britain’s payments to the European Union. As election defeat looks more certain, these tensions will increase.

The second habit is people giving up. Politicians want to advance their careers. They don’t give up their friends, families and better ways of making money merely to kick their heels in parliament. They want to get on. If they think their government is stellar, they will hitch their wagon to it. If not, they will seek other routes to making a name and building a base. That someone with the ambition and talent of Nick Herbert could simply walk away from ministerial life suggests his eye is on the future. Increasingly, MPs will refuse to serve as parliamentary private secretaries, be more willing to resign from junior ministerial posts, or refuse to swap the bully pulpit of the backbenches for the self-denying ordinance of the government payroll.

Third, ineffectual governments start to become careless with their supporters. Tony Blair liked to pick the odd scrap with parts of his own coalition of support, but only ever to widen his base elsewhere. David Cameron does the former, without the latter. He has set his leadership on a collision course with huge sections of the electorate. It’s not just the obvious assaults on the good will of police officers, service families, business people and others who might be expected to vote Tory. It is also the broader erosion in support among working families, in the south, and in skilled trades and professions. This cavalier attitude towards the electorate’s affections is reflected in the polling. By late October, the Tories were between 10 and 13 points behind Labour. The Liberal Democrats were down to single digits, vying with UKIP as Britain’s third party.

The fourth habit is falling out with the civil service. In the British system, governments are entirely reliant on their officials. A minister without the support of his or her civil servants is like a ship without an anchor. When things go wrong, an effective minister can enlist the support of the officials to put things right. An ineffectual minister merely blames his or her officials. The west coast rail franchise fiasco is a good example. If officials cocked it up, whose fault is it? The officials, making the best of a bad job, without the proper technical advice or support? Or the ministers, who set the policy framework, barked the orders, and would have quite happily taken the credit had it gone well? As the axe falls on central government departments, morale suffers. The corridors of Eric Pickles’ CLG are like the decks of the Marie Celeste. Other departments are in the same boat. The British civil service has no record of mounting a coup d’état against an elected government, or even an unelected one like ours. But it can certainly make life difficult if it senses ministers are failing to act in the national interest.

Fifth, ineffectual governments fail to deliver their own policies. I think it was Blair who used to say the best policy makes the best politics. The reverse is true: bad policies make bad politics. The sell-off of the forests, the NHS reforms, the police commissioner elections: ministers keep on getting it wrong. The AV referendum was a shambles. John Hayes’ announcement on wind farms will be studied by future generations as the exemplar of government confusion. The debates on Europe are starting to make Maastricht look like a Quaker meeting. The next two years will be marked by further policy confusion and mismanagement, contributing to the strong sense that Cameron wanted to be prime minister without knowing what he wanted to do once he got there. Vague noises about the ‘big society’ are no substitute for actual policy.

All of which leads to the sixth habit of ineffectual governments: the increased volume and frequency of announcements without substance. What does a government do when it is buffeted by events and scandals? It makes announcements. It fills a grid with announcements. It orders its ministers and special advisers to come up with announcements. It makes announcements the alpha and omega of its existence. The problem is twofold: one, the drive for more announcements makes each one more flimsy and more likely to disintegrate under the lightest of scrutiny; and two, the louder ministers shout, the louder the media yawn.

Last, the worst of all the habits. Number seven is the one which guarantees a sure demise: the habit of getting hit by scandals. Following the resignation of the chief whip Andrew Mitchell, the government’s ratings slumped. Who knows where the child abuse scandal is heading. And what about Cameron’s close professional relationship with the former CEO of News International, revealed through the leaks of his toe-curling texts? Ask John Major or Gordon Brown what happens when you can’t shake off a scandal. It never ends well.

—————————————————————————————

Paul Richards writes a weekly column for Progress, Paul’s week in politics. He tweets @LabourPaul

—————————————————————————————

The prime minister’s office