Despite the need for reform in Germany, the SPD will have difficulty dislodging Angela Merkel this year, says Michael Miebach
Six out of 10 Germans say they are dissatisfied with Angela Merkel’s conservative-liberal coalition. They have good reason: the government is mainly associated with reducing the taxes of hotel-owners, controversial social measures, and zigzagging on nuclear energy. It has neither the aspiration nor the policy ideas to tackle the major challenges Germany is facing – stunted social mobility, a poor education system, the low birth rate. And, as the economy is in good shape, this would be a perfect time to modernise the country. But the government is simply administering the status quo.
These should be good times for the opposition. But they are not. In the polls, Merkel’s CDU hits the magic 40 per cent, while the SPD is still trapped below 30 per cent. Asked who should be chancellor, 54 per cent of Germans say Merkel, while 36 per cent come out in favour of her social democrat challenger, Peer Steinbrück. And if the liberal FDP manages to jump the five per cent hurdle at the federal elections in September, the continuation of the governing coalition is not unrealistic.
There are two reasons for this paradox. Merkel is by far the most popular politician in the country: Germans like her integrity and prosaic style, and she presents herself as the defender of Germany’s interest and as Europe’s crisis-manager. In addition, she is extremely flexible with regard to political positions, undercutting opposition stances and swiping progressive policies when it suits.
The SPD, on the other hand, lacks self-confidence. For example, the party dares not claim credit for the excellent economic situation, although the country clearly profits from the reforms implemented under Gerhard Schröder. The reforms are still, even today, highly controversial among the social democrats. And too often since its historic defeat of 2009,the party seems to have been more preoccupied with avoiding pitfalls than opposing the government and trying to gain the upper hand over Merkel. Just take European crisis management, with the German social democrats flip-flopping between supporting and criticising Merkel’s strategy. In the end, to be seen to be acting in the national interest, the SPD voted in favour of all rescue measures, however flawed they were.
While the CDU will bank on Merkel’s popularity, the SPD plans to make the increasing divisions between rich and poor the focus of its campaign: major demands will include the introduction of a general minimum wage, capping rent levels, changes in the pension system, and strengthening financial market regulation. Never before has a German party entered the election campaign with such a wide-ranging plan to raise taxes on the wealthy in order to pay for investments in infrastructure and education, and to reach a balanced budget.
Whether this experiment works largely depends on the social democrat candidate for chancellor. Steinbrück is a highly respected economist and financial expert, but he does not epitomise social justice. And he lost credibility following public outrage about the extra earnings he received for holding lectures after he left office as finance minister, totalling up to €1.25m, including €25,000 paid by the cash-strapped city of Bochum.
Germans dislike the governing coalition, but they like Merkel, and the SPD has not yet convinced them. The most realistic scenario is a grand coalition between conservatives and social democrats, again, under Merkel as chancellor.
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Michael Miebach is a political scientist, senior editor of Berliner Republik, and deputy chair of the thinktank Das Progressive Zentrum
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