Canadian politics could be in for a change, as we now have three parties with strong leaders. Once again. Or so it seems.
The venerable Liberal party, which got quite a drubbing in May 2011’s general election, has elected a dynamic and charismatic leader, 41-year-old Justin Trudeau, the son of the popular, albeit controversial, Pierre Trudeau, who governed Canada for some 15 years. Conservative leader Stephen Harper, prime minister since 2006, has a strong, although slightly faltering, base of about one-third of Canadians. The New Democratic party has Thomas Mulcair, the untested successor to the charismatic Jack Layton who died of cancer four months after taking his party to its greatest heights in 2011. The NDP is the social democratic party in Canada, which has just ditched all references to ‘socialism’ in its constitution in an effort to bring itself into the political mainstream and the broad political centre, where most Canadian voters tend to reside.
There are two other parties which have an effect: the Green party with its first seat in the House of Commons and the separatist Bloc Québécois, presently with five seats, down from the usual 40-50. Those seats went to the NDP, or, more specifically, to Layton. And, while Mulcair is from Quebec, he is hoping to pull off a similar feat to his late predecessor at the next election.
So where do things stand going forward? We are two years from the next election, due in October 2015. When compared to Trudeau, (often just referred to as ’Justin‘), Harper and Mulcair are increasingly likened to the angry old men from the Muppet Show. They claim to be heavier on policy while Trudeau is just beginning on a policy development conversation with the voters – which is both a strength and a weakness. The Conservatives began attack ads the day after he was elected leader in mid-April. Although this nastiness provoked some backlash, such tactics have worked in politically assassinating previous Liberal leaders. Trudeau is insisting that a positive response is the best. Time will tell on that.
Some feel that the Liberals, New Democrats and Greens need to merge in order to overcome the strong Conservative base. But there is no such appetite among the Liberals and New Democrats, as they have been very separate groups for decades, and they are both battling to be the sole alternative to the terrible Tories.
Conventional wisdom suggests the Conservatives will lose their slim majority at the next election and the Liberals and New Democrats could form a governing accord or a coalition. But Trudeau is a game-changer and is currently leading in the polls. Moreover, Harper, whose unpopularity is growing while his iron grip on his party is slipping, may quit politics and there is no obvious successor in his party – another game-changer.
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Andrew Cardozo is president of the Canadian Centre for Progressive Policy
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