As we approach the next election, the general election battlelines are being drawn.
Cameron has three messages to the country – and Labour needs to be wary because they all have some traction with the public.
First, ‘Let us finish the job (and don’t let Labour ruin it again)’. Polling shows that the public still blame Labour for the 2008 world financial collapse, and the Tories are seeking to draw the debate back onto this ground. Labour was characterised as wanting ‘more spending, more borrowing, more debt’. However, ‘you can’t borrow your way out of a debt crisis’ is understood by the public, and if we fight the next election trying to explain Keynesian economics to the public we will lose. Labour policy is to neutralise it by sticking to the same financial envelope (except for capital investment), but we have a big job of work to do with the public because they don’t yet believe we can deliver the implicit cuts. I believe that the public will actually trust us more if we tell them some of the hard decisions we will have to make in government – spell out some hard cuts now as it will actually enhance our credibility.
Second, he wants Tory party to represent the aspirational in society: the ‘land of hope and Tory’ line. Cameron emphasised home-ownership and the ‘Help to Buy’ mortgage scheme, and, more significantly, education reform (free schools). The speech was very weak on any real way the aspirational are helped – the cost-of-living crisis is hitting them hard. The aspirational are the late-deciding voters who tend to swing elections (brilliantly described here by the Campaign Company). There is a real opportunity for Labour here to capture this group in society again, as we did so well from 1997, but we need to ensure that we speak their language, not just the language of fairness which is the comfort zone for most of us on the left.
Third, the dark underbelly of Lynton Crosby-style attacks on welfare and immigration appear. Cameron says people are right to be ‘angry’ about welfare, but he avoided the harder-edged attacks of Osborne as he was ‘fighting to prevent people being written off’. It looks like Cameron himself is reluctant to go hard at this stage – it would scare off those who know the truth for most on benefits. Immigrants are no longer to be allowed the NHS, legal aid and social homes, and asylum-seekers must appeal after being deported (presumably hoping they haven’t been killed in the meantime). These attacks will get harder and more frequent under a Crosby campaign – and they often have traction in deprived estates more than in affluent areas. Labour still doesn’t have a compelling story to tell on this, the apprenticeships for each non-EU worker being a symbolic but somewhat shaky start. Fortunately the Tories are also vulnerable to UKIP on this issue and may not be able to campaign too hard without fear of losing voters from each end of the spectrum.
There are three reasons to be very cheerful. First, Labour dominated the speech – the Tories are clearly rattled by Ed’s ‘cost-of-living crisis’ story and don’t have a serious response. The best response was that the deficit was causing the cost-of-living crisis (as in Greece). However, simply pointing to energy price inflation (and US economic growth) should be enough to see this off.
Second, the Tory pitch to the north was restricted to fracking in Blackpool, green energy in the Humber and HS2. I don’t predict dancing in the streets of Hull or Liverpool tonight. The Tories would need to break out of their south-eastern fortress and they are showing few signs of making progress. The Tories still look and sound like a party of posh people (Eric Pickles excepted).
Third, the Tories are clearly terrified of UKIP. Euro-bashing got the usual applause, but more significantly there is an alliance which can be struck between Labour and business on ensuring our outlook is pro-EU. Cameron will never convince the Euro-haters in his party and the public, but the UKIP split means the more he raises the issue the more they gain. Labour has the opportunity to form an outward-looking alliance with business.
This was the first Tory leader’s speech I’ve watched, and I was left feeling very flat. No policy announcements, delivered in a downbeat tone, and no real thread of argument. In particular, Cameron was unable to explain why they have failed to eradicate the deficit within this parliament as they promised the public. This also fatally undermines their new promise to run a budget surplus next parliament (promising another austerity parliament). More importantly, the public don’t feel any recovery – their costs are rising faster than income – and this disconnect is hurting the Tories, hopefully where it hurts – in the ballot box.
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Paul Brant is deputy mayor of Liverpool. He tweets @CllrPaulBrant