Ten years ago social democrats were dominant in Europe, in government in 15 countries. By 2009, after the financial crisis came, it was five. This prompted many to ask whether the crisis had killed off European social democracy. Now in power in 10 European countries, the centre-left in Europe is not down and out. But neither is it ready to move toward dominance at national or European level.
The traditional view of European elections as being secondary versions of national elections, tantamount to a referendum in which voters are able to send a harmless warning to incumbents, is unravelling slightly. That would normally see an increase in seats for the Party of European Socialists, currently with 195 seats to the centre-right European People’s Party’s 274. But the political cycle does not look like moving that way.
The voters’ reluctance to endorse incumbents will not benefit the centre-left. Voters now have two groups to reject: those who have overseen austerity, and those who were in charge when the crisis first came. The cat is out of the bag when it comes to the rise in support for anti-EU political forces. Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times this week put the frighteners on by floating the possibility of a European Tea party halting decision-making at the European parliament the way it does in Congress.
Rejectionists will make gains but not by enough to threaten the European project on the floor of the European parliament. For one thing, there will be no unity. In Europe, all power flows from the groupings. And the ‘antis’ don’t have a grouping. Around which values would they coalesce? Each country has one strong ‘anti’ party. But in each country, it is tailored to a particular experience, sometimes from the left, sometimes from the right, sometimes a mix. Here in Britain, the free-market but anti-immigrant United Kingdom Independence party is polling a healthy 22 per cent, after an 18-month period dominated by pressure within Conservative ranks for a commitment to a referendum. David Cameron has been unable to buy off the fringe-right with this commitment, and so must rely on appeals to unity.
In France the popularity of the far-right Front National continues to solidify. The FN topped a recent poll on voting intentions for the European elections in 2014, with 24 per cent to the centre-right’s UMP’s 22 per cent and the Socialists’ 19 per cent. Forty-six per cent think that Marine Le Pen is best placed to challenge François Hollande for the presidency. FN popularity comes in waves – up when the Socialists are in power, and down when the right is united. The UMP is fractured with no clear leader. But with its mix of anti-immigrant rhetoric and economic interventionism, FN has garnered support from both right and left.
A third successive defeat in a general election for the SPD in Germany would be more disappointing for them if it were not for the vagaries of their electoral system. With the liberal FPD squeezed out of the Bundestag by the five per cent requirement, the SPD is in a good position to form a ‘grand coalition’ with Angela Merkel’s CDU. The price for this might be Merkel’s support for Martin Schultz as president of the European commission. In any case, social democrats can take heart in a moral victory: Merkel’s dominance is in part based on her acceptance of swathes of sensible SPD policy.
What the polls and the mood in Europe tell us is that the people of Europe don’t yet believe that the centre-left have the answer to the economic malaise in which we find ourselves. Social democrats are in serious trouble in Greece, Spain and Portugal. And in France they need to find a way to stop leaking support to protectionist and populist FN. The far-right is on the up in Britain, France, Hungary, Poland, Greece, Austria, Bulgaria, and the Netherlands. But to say that the emergence of the ‘antis’ in unlikely places is a game-changing election is a red herring. In the end it is likely that there will not be much change in the composition of groupings in the European parliament. Privately, sister-party colleagues will be viewing this as a holding-pattern election, relying on post-election big ticket wins like the president of the commission to cement desirable programmes of reform. In Britain, the Labour party does not have a choice. We did so badly at the 2009 election that we have to make big gains at European parliament level. And it’s very important that good local election results are not overshadowed by lacklustre performance in the Euros. In the long term the only solution to the ‘anti’ problem is to produce a plan for jobs and growth that works for the majority of people and makes sense to them. I hope that the work on this be completed urgently.
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Alan Donnelly is a former leader of Labour in Europe and a political consultant. He tweets @alandonnelly57
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