As the parliamentary candidate for the key marginal Cheshire seat of Weaver Vale (East Runcorn, Northwich, Frodsham), currently held by the Tories with a majority of just 991, I am under no illusion of the task ahead of me in 2015.
In order for Labour to be returned to government in one term, with any kind of majority, Labour absolutely must win target seats like Weaver Vale, number 17 on Labour’s hitlist and one of the ‘40 Group’ of marginal Tory-held seats. Quite simply, if Labour does not win back seats like mine, and one only recently reprieved as one of the 50 constituencies under threat from the boundary review, then not only will Labour not get back into power in 2015, but Weaver Vale may well cease to exist post-2015 when the boundary review will most likely be implemented. This could keep Labour out of government potentially for many years to come.
With that sobering prospect in mind, what use is it to our hard-pressed Labour councils and Labour MPs – many of them in the north-west – if a Tory government gets re-elected in 2015?
The county of Cheshire has 11 parliamentary constituencies but only three of them are held by Labour: Halton, Ellesmere Port and Neston, and Warrington North. Cheshire is Tory-dominated – George Osborne is, after all, the MP for Tatton, one of the neighbouring constituencies to Weaver Vale. The county, therefore, cannot be considered typical of the north-west and is an area where we must make gains.
If Labour is to win a majority in 2015 it does so not only by making gains in Cheshire seats like Weaver Vale, Warrington South and City of Chester but also by winning key marginal seats in the south-east like Thurrock in Essex (Tory majority of just 92).
But the strength of Labour’s majority in 2015 lies in winning other winnable Essex seats like South Basildon and East Thurrock, and Harlow as well as Cheshire’s Crewe and Nantwich – all three are seats in the ‘Frontline 40’, the constituencies that Labour needs to win in order to gain a working majority.
Having been born and brought up in south-east Essex, and still visiting regularly since I moved away 30 years ago, I meet people like me whose parents moved out of the East End of London after the second world war who still hold on to a set of values and principles which hark back to their parents’ working class roots.
What strikes me is that it is challenging enough getting the core Labour vote out in the Labour areas of Weaver Vale in the Labour-run Halton borough council wards. What is even more challenging is convincing the lapsed or even would-be Labour voter in marginal seats in Cheshire and Essex to vote Labour when everything might appear superficially to be functioning under their Tory-led councils with a Tory-led government in control.
What if your working-class parents have instilled in you their working-class values and a strong work ethic and you happen to live in ‘middle England’ now? What if you have been able to keep in work and been fortunate enough to always ‘do the right thing’ as you perceive it, paid into the system all your life like your parents, own your own home (and therefore are not affected by the ‘bedroom tax’), never got into debt apart from your mortgage? You expect other people to get on with it and do the same.
It’s only when you, too, start to see that your living standards are gradually diminishing as you are affected by the ‘cost of living crisis’ that you start to get why you could be better off under Labour.
Only when ‘Cheshire woman’ and ‘Essex Man’ in marginal constituencies are convinced of Labour’s argument and understand what’s in it for them do we get a Labour government with a working majority in 2015.
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Julia Tickridge is Labour’s prospective parliamentary candidate for Weaver Vale, is a councillor on Cheshire West and Chester council, and is north-west regional representative on the Cooperative party National Executive Committee. She tweets @JuliaTickridge
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Campaign for a Labour Majority: How can Labour win a mandate in 2015? at Labour party north west conference
12pm, Saturday 2 November
Imperial 3, Imperial Hotel, North Parade, Blackpool, Lancashire, FY1 2HB
Ivan Lewis MP Shadow secretary of state for Northern Ireland
Alison McGovern MP Shadow minister for international development
Lewis Baston Writer and consultant on politics, elections, history and corruption
Will Straw PPC for Rossendale and Darwen
Chair: Julia Tickridge PPC for Weaver Vale
This fringe event at Labour party north west conference is part of Progress’ Campaign for a Labour Majority regional series. Panellists will discuss how, in the run up to the 2015 election, Labour can build a broad coalition of support that speaks to the concerns of people across the country and that will give an incoming Labour government a strong working majority.