Gun control

It is just over a year since the 14 December 2012 massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut, where 20 children and six teachers were gunned down in cold blood. It would be easy to look at the US and say that nothing of substance has changed in terms of gun control. And, at the federal level at least, there is certainly a lot of truth in that: in the immediate aftermath of Sandy Hook there was a huge swell of support for the introduction of far stricter gun controls, but Obama was unable to progress any legislation through Congress. Much of this of course was due to the gun lobby: it was the NRA and others who successfully turned the debate from guns to mental illness. But it was also due to the deeply-embedded belief of many Americans in the second amendment, and the fact that for so many guns are a major part of their social and sporting lives.

It isn’t all bad news by any stretch. The federal government may have struggled to make any meaningful change, but at state level there has been substantial progress. 21 states have strengthened their gun laws since last December. In my home state of Maryland assault rifles have been banned and background checks are now required for any gun purchase. A number of states closed loopholes on background checks, banned or strengthened bans on high-capacity magazines, set requirements for gun owners to report when their firearm is missing or stolen, and strengthened assault weapons laws.

Yet there have also been states that have legislated in the opposite direction. 20 states have actually expanded gun rights since Newtown, including North Carolina where gun owners can now carry concealed firearms in parks, playgrounds, bars and restaurants.  In Kansas, Alaska and Virginia lawmakers are trying to nullify federal regulations on gun control.

So how much is gun control a partisan issue? At the federal level, not that much. Many congressional Democrats as well as Republicans argued against the need for stricter gun control either because they personally believed it or because they reasoned their chances of reelection would take a big hit if they didn’t side with the gun lobby. But at the state level the issues is much more partisan. Every state that has enacted changes – whether for stricter or looser gun control – has both houses held by the same party.  In every Democrat state restrictions have been tightened; in every Republican state they have been relaxed.

Since Sandy Hook, over 33,000 people have been killed by guns in America. In the town itself there is outrage and despair at the failure of government to act. But change is coming, albeit slowly. It might take a generation to really see the difference but the legacy of Sandy Hook is that the debate has definitively moved on. Chris Murphy, a Democratic senator from Connecticut, says: ‘We are in a fundamentally different place today than we were a year ago. For my first six years in Congress, you’d get laughed at if you claimed that a bill strengthening gun laws had any chance of passing the House and Senate. Now we are regularly debating the merits of different proposals to strengthen gun law.’

Sinking Democrats

Only a month ago the Democrats were soaring off the back of the government shutdown as the Republicans – rightly – took the brunt of the blame. But a combination of the budget deal and the implementation of the Affordable Care Act has left Obama and the Democrats spiraling downwards in the polls.

It is of course good news that Republicans and Democrats have agreed a budget. The deal – negotiated by Republican Paul Ryan and Democrat Patti Murray – prevents any further government shutdowns until after the next presidential election, and provides much of the funding requested for both military and non-military spending for the next couple of years. It doesn’t end sequestration, which means government spending and taxation both continue to fall until 2020, but it takes the edge off it.  Most importantly, it shows that Congress can actually compromise when it wants to. However, even though in terms of their tactical aims both parties lose and gain roughly equally from the deal, it is the Republicans, and Paul Ryan in particular, who have emerged stronger. Moderate Republicans – including House majority leader John Boehner – have shown they have the Tea party firmly in control, or at least have the numbers and the confidence to stand up to them.

Meanwhile, the rollout of Obamacare continues to cause controversy, not least with the ill-fated healthcare website. There have been screw ups with at least 15 per cent of applications and it would likely have been much worse had the website actually been functioning properly and millions more been able to (try to) sign up.

Of course, it’s all about timing. Come next November, when both Houses as well as many states are up for grabs, Obamacare could be proving increasingly popular and the Tea party might have escaped from their asylum. Until then: watch this space.