#CostofCameron? Or should that be #CostofClegg? It’s long been a problem for those of us fighting Liberal Democrats that the Labour party, for understandable reasons, concentrates on the Tories when it comes to running national campaigns. In regions like the east of England, where Progress are organising the Third Place First conference a week tomorrow, it is a particularly familiar problem because the Liberal Democrats have made steady advances in a number of councils and constituencies over the last two decades. Casual observers might imagine that the 2010 general election, the coalition, and the current dismal showing for the Liberal Democrats in national opinion polls has changed all that, that the Lib Dems are a busted flush. If only it were that simple, and if only they were. In some places they have indeed almost totally disappeared – but in areas where they are organised, where they have well-established representatives, it can be a different story, as the Eastleigh arliamentary by-election demonstrated.
Indeed, that by-election gave Lib Dems the glimmer of hope that they needed to persuade themselves that they can ignore the dire polling and that there is a way through it for them. But again, that’s too simplistic as well – Eastleigh may or may not be typical of strong Lib Dem areas, but it certainly doesn’t fit the pattern we’ve seen in my city of Cambridge. The hopeful case being made by some Liberal Democrats, that incumbency and strong local work trumps national trends, hasn’t translated into results for them. In Cambridge, as in many two-tier local authority areas, we have elections by thirds, which means we have had three rounds of all-out elections since 2010, as well as the police and crime commissioner election, and so far it is a resounding 4-0 win for Labour. And yet … what does that tell us for elections this year and then for the general election? Probably not as much as would hope, given the current scoreline – I would say it is still all to play for.
The reason is simple. Large numbers of people in cities like Cambridge haven’t yet made up their mind. Actually, very many were unsure in 2010 as well. I was the candidate and we have good records of what people tell us: the overwhelming response on the doorstep was ’don’t know’, or rather, ‘definitely not Tory, but not happy with Labour, and haven’t forgiven you for the war.’ Which translated into a vote for the Liberal Democrats. The irony is, of course, that it delivered a Tory government – an irony which Tony Juniper, the candidate for the Greens in Cambridge in 2010, and I loudly pointed out! Four years on, there has been a substantial shift back to Labour among that same group, who tell us ‘definitely not Tory, not happy with the Liberal Democrats, and still haven’t entirely forgiven you for the war’! Which, in turn, frequently translates into a vote for Labour.
My conclusion? Labour is reasonably well placed in seats where we are competing with the Liberal Democrats because for many people the threat of a continuing Tory government outweighs the local work of incumbents. But many of those people are yet to be fully convinced by Labour, and that is the challenge which both the national party and candidates like myself face over the next 15 months. They don’t expect (nor would believe) miracles. Many of them remember the very high hopes placed in the 1997 government and fear disappointment. Sadly, there probably isn’t a policy silver bullet which will convince them – instead it will be as politics always is: a mass of individual decisions based on a complex mix of culture, instinct, trust, hope and fear. We can more than match the Liberal Democrats on the ground with organisation, enthusiasm and numbers. If we talk to people, listen to them, engage with them and offer a sensible set of promises which are credible but also optimistic, I’m confident that large numbers will plump for us. If that turns out to be the case, it will demonstrate that for the Liberal Democrats, the #CostofClegg was – pretty high!
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Daniel Zeichner is prospective parliamentary candidate for Cambridge, a seat in which Labour was in third place in 2010. He tweets @DanielZeichner
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