The year of the referendum is finally upon us. As the independence referendum campaign enters its 20th month we are just beginning the actual year of the referendum. Here in Scotland we’re giving the Americans a run for their money when it comes to campaign marathons…

So how can we get an accurate snapshot of what people in Scotland are thinking as we approach September? Well, as in any other year, we get the results of the Scottish social attitudes survey to help us paint an accurate picture of what the electorate are thinking.

This year, more than any other in recent memory, these results will be poured over by the Scottish media. As I write, more details are being released and disseminated by academics, commentators and politicians alike. In this referendum year these results provide the closest thing to a mid-term report card either campaign is likely to get.

So what do we know so far?

Well, nobody will be shocked to find that, as in almost all political campaigns, the economy dominates people’s thinking as they approach this decision. Despite the long awaited white paper and all of Alex Salmond’s bluster, uncertainties over key economic issues are at the front of people’s minds. Currency continues to be a big issue; this morning on the way to the station my taxi driver struck up a conversation about the referendum after seeing my Better Together badge, his conclusion hit the nail on the head – ‘he’s still not answered the big questions, I mean, he can’t even guarantee us if we’d use the pound or not’! This is a conversation that I’ve heard time and again, and is being repeated in taxis, workplaces and homes across Scotland.

As well as the currency, the key question of how our personal finances would be affected by leaving the UK features prominently in people’s thinking. This issue is the top line of this year’s Scottish social attitudes survey. For a sizeable proportion of undecided voters the decision we make in September will not be made as a result of an attachment to any notion of national identity but rather as a shrewd, practical decision – ‘what will this mean for me?’ and most crucially ‘will I be better off’?

The social attitudes survey has shown that fewer than 1 in ten people believe that they would be personally better off financially if we vote to leave the UK and this is not without good reason. In the past year we’ve found out from an array of impartial experts that we’re better off in the UK. The impartial IFS calculated that even in the best circumstances there would have to be swinging cuts to public services and huge tax hikes to balance the books of a separate Scotland. Their calculation showed that in the best of circumstances, the tax hikes alone that would be needed would cost every basic rate taxpayer £1,000 per year on average. Add to this the expert report that showed energy bills in every Scottish household would have to rise by £875 a year, to pay for renewables infrastructure, and the warnings from supermarket bosses that even the cost of a weekly shop would go up, then you see why people believe independence is not a price worth paying.

So as the referendum finishing line becomes visible in the distance what are the challenges for those of us on the side of solidarity? Well, firstly, we should understand these figures; it’s clear that most people in Scotland who have made up their minds see the advantages we have as part of the UK and remain unconvinced by Alex Salmond’s assertions. However this referendum is far from over and a large group of people in Scotland remain undecided and open to arguments from both sides. These are the voters who will be swayed by the economic arguments. It will be up to us to knock the doors and have the conversations with these voters in the coming months. We’ve got the arguments on our side, now it’s time to get the facts out and ensure that we continue to be better off in the UK.

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Ross MacRae is communications officer at the Better Together campaign and writes the Better Together column for Progress

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