This year for the first time, party groups in the European parliament are putting up unified candidates for the presidency of the European commission. The Party of European Socialists has nominated the German president of the European parliament Martin Schulz. While there is some dissent about ‘politicisation’ of the commission through choosing single candidates in this way, the PES nominee argues that the ideas that the commission is not political is, in any case, fantasy.
Having been an MEP since 1994, Martin is a serious European Union insider. Before that he spent 10 years in local government, mostly while working as a bookseller. His PES candidacy has not boosted his profile massively in the UK – as it is British voters would best know him as the subject of a Godfrey Bloom (ex-Ukip) verbal assault of mimicking Nazi slogans. But, as part of his campaign, Martin has been on a charm-offensive, pressing the flesh in Brussels and Strasbourg, and practising his French more than usual. His cordiality extends to political opponents: when asked about David Cameron’s plans for European reform, he offers to listen to specific plans rather than simply dismiss them. And, to address common Eurosceptic concerns, Martin has been making a point of talking about what should be decided at local, national, and regional level. While agreeing with the principle of subsidiarity – which says that decisions should be taken at the lowest level possible – this has also allowed him to outline his priorities for further cooperation in the areas of: banking, including bonuses; immigration; research and development; and climate change.
His belief that the personalisation of the top European jobs will invigorate European democracy by exciting voters is endearing, if probably overoptimistic. Yet he clearly genuinely believes in the importance and effectiveness of having a direct relationship with voters, arguing that the disconnection of an elite political class from voters is a a main reason behind France’s current ‘psychological crisis’.
With such large job at stake – which, no doubt, will still in the end be decided by horse-trading behind closed doors –policy itself is outlined only in broad brush-strokes. Martin has been clear about his proiorities: lessening austerity and, most importantly, combatting youth unemployment. With youth unemployment rates of 55 per cent in Spain, 28 per cent in France, and even 23 per cent in Sweden, who can deny he has identified the right issue? He also wants a smaller commission, and wants to concentrate on reforms that do not need a treaty change. This should be a relief for progressive British reformers, compelled as we now are to hold a referendum on any proposed changes to the European treaties.
At home, the Labour party has felt unable to support Martin. The reasons for this are understandable and obvious. In the end, though, they say more about the current state of the Labour party in Europe than they do about Martin. The fear for Labour is that backing Martin would be a gift to the Tories.
It points to how finely balanced this election will be. We know we need to pick up seats, and, coming from so low a base, we will. But if the gain is not large enough, it will be an opportunity lost, and fingers will have to be pointed. We benefit from opposition status, which should help us do well, but the polls tell us the voters are increasingly Eurosceptic. Unveiling a positive vision for Europe accompanied buy a cost-benefit analysis and making this the main message is therefore a risk. ‘Steady as she goes’ seems the safer strategy. Earlier this month, Progress asked ‘Will we campaign positively on the EU?’ If the polls are how they are, and our confidence remains muted, I doubt it.
So why is Martin relevant to this? A quick Google reveals all. He sees the euro as a key tenet of Europeanness, and wants to see it expanded further. In an interview in September he let slip: ‘the following applies: The euro is the currency of Europe. All states are obliged sooner or later to adopt the euro.’ Worse, he is widely considered a federalist. This word will strike terror into Tories, and indeed dismay much of our own party. That his description of federalism merely seems to be about cooperating and pooling sovereignty where reasonable to do so is, apparently, of little importance to the critics. Even worse, he chose as his favourite a book by Eric Hobsbawm, The Age of Extremes, something which Ukip picked up on, and his advocacy of a common European immigration policy is reasonable but will horrify the government.
With a hostile Eurosceptic press and a government being pulled right by the UKIP insurgency, Ed Miliband will be prey to potshots if he went on record as supporting Martin. Clearly, the last thing Ed needs is Cameron bringing up a few choice quotes across the dispatch box, to the joy of the 1922 Committee types sitting behind him. It’s a shame, but understandable.
Meanwhile, the PES is the only major group to have already selected its candidate. The races in the Liberal ALDE and centre-right EPP groups are set to be competitive: Olli Rehn and Guy Verhofstadt are in the running for ALDE, with numerous names mentioned for the EPP nomination, including Jean-Claude Juncker, Michel Barnier, Valdis Dombrovskis, Viviane Reding, Jyrki Katainen, and Enda Kenny.
Though a member of the fringe ECR group, Cameron has said he will support Enda Kenny. Kenny would be a formidable opponent, not least because, being the Irish prime minister, he can serve as a poster boy for austerity and the troika, two of Martin’s targets for criticism.
If the PES tops the European parliamentary poll, it will be hard to deny Martin the job. But I don’t feel that will happen. It may end up being the case that his moment has come just at the wrong time: it is likely Angela Markel will give tacit support to Martin as a result of the Grand Coalition deal, but there is a growing sense in Europe that Germany is too dominant, and so the top job should not go to a German.
Another factor that may come into play is whom the ALDE group will seek to support once their candidate is out of the running. ALDE is a very heterogeneous group, and much will depend on their results. All of which means his charm-offensive needs to continue. For Labour, the adoption of Martin Schulz as candidate – due to happen formally on 1 March – is a reminder how far we are from some allies.
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Alan Donnelly is a former leader of Labour in Europe and a political consultant. He tweets @alandonnelly57
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