Yesterday the run-off of the French municipal elections ended with the worst possible scenario for François Hollande after the 23 March first round’s poor results. Despite holding the Paris mayoralty, with the first woman ever to win that post, the results confirmed the tendencies noticed last week, namely an unusually high abstention level, a Front National breakthrough in northern and south-eastern France and big disillusions with the ruling Socialist party.

In short, the Socialist party is losing its leadership in 150 out of 921 towns with more than 10,000 people. The centre-right Union for a Popular Movement can claim major ‘trophies’ like Toulouse, Saint-Etienne, and Limoges (which had been ruled by the left since 1912). This confirms a trend noticeable in the Netherlands, whereby European social democrats are losing the ‘big red cities’, as highlighted in Policy Network’s latest State of the Left bulletin. Moreover, the FN will govern in eight of these towns, like Fréjus and Béziers (both with populations of more than 50,000).

Some Socialist leaders and members hoped that yesterday’s ballot would see a surge in participation and the re-emergence of a ‘Republican front’ bringing together the centre-left and the centre-right to beat FN candidates. This did not happen. Abstention remained pretty high, around 40 per cent, thus signalling the fact that a lot of people were voting ‘with their feet’. The ‘Republican front’ rhetoric sounds exhausted. A lot of voters are not afraid of the FN any more and are tempted to give it a go.

What does this mean for Hollande and the Socialist-Green government? The government has lost all credibility on its most significant promise, namely to lower unemployment and put a halt to plant closures. Growth has not resumed and this makes the size of fiscal consolidation all the more painful. Poor communication and coordination have also given the impression of an unprepared and ill-managed team. The attempt to spell out a bolder reformist course came only in January this year, but the announcement of further tax cuts for businesses did not go down well with the leftwing electorate. Extending these cuts to low-earning households, as Matteo Renzi is contemplating doing in Italy, should be the next logical step.

More importantly, if one accepts that Hollande won in 2012 largely due to a widespread rejection of Nicolas Sarkozy, the elections are a reminder that the Socialist party has lost people’s trust. The Socialists’ technocratic and opaque culture (the 2011 primary election being one exception) is certainly to blame, both at national and local levels. Many mayors and local councillors who were ousted yesterday had a good record on paper. However, they came across as an out of touch and networked elite trying to defend their privileges rather than ‘being like us’.

Presence on the ground and conviviality are precisely two of the new FN strengths. Marine Le Pen’s strategy to ‘normalise’ her father’s far-right party and make it a pillar of French politics has been working so far. Yet a new phase is beginning now, in which the FN’s credibility will be tested locally. By getting a bit more mainstream, FN accusations against the ‘system’ may start to lose their appeal. This should not in any case provide the Socialists with an excuse not to change its practices and revamp its policy offer.

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Renaud Thillaye is a senior researcher at Policy Network.

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Photo: Remi Noyon