A bitter, protracted Maryland winter is at last coming to an end. It has been the coldest winter in decades, and, though the total snowfall was not a record, the number of snowstorms surely was. Federal employees have been asked to stay at home on almost a dozen occasions because of the treacherous conditions on the roads, and schools in some counties have been closed for 17 days. The annual Cherry Blossom festival has music, theatre, food and drink, but unfortunately no cherry blossoms, which have yet to make an appearance. Not surprising then that all the talk is of a Democrat meltdown in November and a new cold war.
A few weeks ago I wrote that there was considerable bipartisanship in the United States on the Ukraine crisis, but that there were differences in approach between the US and Europe. In fact, the west has taken a broadly united front against Russia – no invite to the G8, tough sanctions, substantial assistance to the interim Ukrainian government – and this has helped Barack Obama. Usually the debate about how much the US should be engaged in, or isolated from, international affairs, is increasingly politicised rather than principled, in that whichever way the Democrats move on a particular issue, the Republicans argue the opposite: if Obama wants to use force in Syria, he is accused by many of his opponents of dragging US forces into unnecessary conflicts; if he wants to pull US troops out Afghanistan, he is seen to be weak on terror. If he seeks compromise with Iran he has been fooled by the mullahs, even when no one has viable alternatives.
On Crimea, however, there is broad consensus. Perhaps it is the memory of when a slightly less partisan Washington stood united against the USSR; or maybe the Democrat preference for multilateralism and the Republican penchant for distrusting Vladimir Putin have coincidentally led both parties to the same policies. Either way, there is harmony for now, though it has not escaped attention that, without Russian support, the Iranian nuclear file and the Syrian civil war will become much harder to manage.
That harmony, of course, does not extend to domestic politics. Gay marriage, cannabis legalisation and the introduction of fundamental education reforms are all taking a lot of airtime, but these three are overshadowed by the Affordable Care Act and the upcoming midterms. It is as simple as this: if Obamacare increases in popularity between now and November then the Democrats should just about be able to cling on to the Senate, and might even take a few extra seats in the House; but if its approval further diminishes then the Republicans could sweep both houses and make Obama a lame duck president for his final two years.
So what is the ACA’s standing right now? A recent poll for NPR showed 47 per cent of American’s support the law while 51 per cent oppose it; other polls show larger gaps. Those against the ACA are more militant than those in favour, and are more likely to vote, and independents oppose it by 21 per cent. In other words, if there was an election today the Democrats would be massacred.
However, there are a number of indications that this will not be the case in November: last week the White House hit its target of seven million people to sign up for health coverage under the new law and, as more people get insured and see the benefits, then it is likely that many others will be convinced to sign up too; the polls suggest that opposition has plateaued; the website is now working effectively; and some parts of the ACA – notably insurance coverage for pre-existing conditions and for those under 26 living with their parents – are universally popular.
Most importantly, the Republicans have no clear alternative. A majority want to repeal the ACA but many also want to retain some of those popular elements in place. The GOP cannot repeal Obamacare until 2016 at the earliest, by which time it could be deeply ingrained and attract considerably more support. Just as the Republicans have been exploiting opposition to the ACA ahead of the elections, the Democrats are now building a narrative that says the Republicans are nothing but a destructive force who will throw the baby out with the bathwater. A few months back in this column I predicted that, even if the GOP swept the board in 2016, it would not be able to repeal the ACA. I now believe that in November the Democrats’ argument will win the day.
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