The results of elections to the European parliament have proved somewhat unreliable indicators as to how voters will behave in subsequent general elections. David Cameron may have topped the poll in the last set of European elections one year before he entered Downing Street but both William Hague and Michael Howard found their victories over Tony Blair in 1999 and 2004 swiftly avenged when voters turned their mind to who should form a government.

With the fight for first place now between Labour and the United Kingdom Independence party, this month’s European elections may prove an even more undependable barometer of the nation’s political mood one year before the general election.

Nonetheless, Ukip’s performance will be closely watched. Nigel Farage may have no hope of entering No 10 next May – even at his most boastful he speaks only of the possibility of holding the balance of power – but his party may have the greatest impact on a general election since the formation of the Social Democratic party in 1981. And, while the SDP may have helped guarantee the Tories’ run of election victories during the 1980s by splitting the centre-left vote – although more of the blame for that should probably rest with Labour’s own near-suicidal behaviour – Ukip threatens to lengthen further the period since the Conservatives last won a parliamentary majority.

There is now, however, a growing body of evidence to suggest that Ukip is not simply a danger to Cameron’s re-election hopes. As Lewis Baston outlined in the March edition of Progress, the last year has seen Ukip’s vote jump in by-elections in Labour-held seats in metropolitan boroughs – and while some of that has come at the expense of the Tories, it is the Labour vote which has dropped most sharply as a result. The party appears to perform best in white working-class England. As Matthew Goodwin argues on page 18, ‘Since 2009 Ukip has actually grown the fastest among the social groups that traditionally supported Labour.’ It is what Goodwin terms ‘left behind’ voters – those for whom the transformation of the British economy over the past three decades has brought few rewards – that Farage has set his sights upon. His electoral base is the most working class since Michael Foot led Labour in the early 1980s.

Labour is right, therefore, to question what the avowedly Thatcherite Farage truly offers such voters. Are his plans for a flat tax (in effect, a huge tax cut for the very wealthy), to put the entire NHS out to tender and introduce charges for visiting a GP, or to scrap basic workplace rights like sick or maternity pay, really of benefit to the financially insecure voters who Ukip are now relentlessly targeting? This is a case that Labour should feel confident in making, knowing it now has a series of policies – a boost to housebuilding; tougher enforcement of the minimum wage and a crackdown on the abuse of zero-hours contracts; an expansion of childcare; action to tackle youth unemployment; and the introduction of a new 10p starting rate of tax – which provide a concrete alternative.

But attempting to engage Ukip in a debate about policy will only get Labour so far. For Ukip’s appeal is an emotional one, designed to tell those who are struggling that the solution to their problems is to close Britain off to the world – withdraw from the European Union and end immigration – and bring to a halt the liberalisation of British society which has occurred over the last two decades. As such it requires much more than a shopping list of policy measures, critical though they are.

There is a legitimate debate to be had about both whether the posters that Ukip has plastered on billboards across the country as part of its European election campaign are racist and, if they are, whether labelling them as such is counterproductive. Some of those involved with the campaign against the British National party during the period of its resurgence between 2005 and 2010 argue that only when it was confronted directly and robustly was it defeated. But, during that same period, others argued that calling out its racism appeared dismissive of concerns about immigration.

A similar dilemma confronts the opponents of Ukip, even if Farage’s boorish, rightwing populism is of an altogether different ilk to Nick Griffin’s far-right politics. There is an entirely reasonable fear that attacking Ukip as racist may serve only to reinforce the party’s greatest selling-point – its outsider status – by appearing as if the mainstream parties are simply smearing it out of fear that it threatens their hold on power. However, that concern cannot outweigh the duty of progressives to challenge Ukip for what it is. Like the Tories’ notorious ‘Are you thinking what we’re thinking?’ campaign posters in 2005, there is little doubt that Ukip is engaged in ‘dog-whistle politics’. And, while those who are tempted to vote for it may be doing so out of an understandable sense of frustration and anxiety, that whistle is calling some people with racist, xenophobic, sexist and homophobic views to stand for the party and to donate to it.

There is another Britain that Farage cannot claim to speak for: those who are proud of its diverse society, who believe that migration has brought this country huge economic and social benefits, and who recognise that our status in the world is enhanced by our membership of the EU. Liberal Britain needs a champion and to have its voice heard in the battle against Ukip. The prime minister rode the tiger of Euroscepticism to the Tory party leadership in 2005. Now it threatens to consume him and his party. Nick Clegg deserves credit for attempting to lift the cudgel in last month’s television debates. But he is simply too damaged and too weak to lead this cause. Only Ed Miliband has the values and the credibility to engage Farage. Now is the time for him to do so.

———————————

Photo: Eurorealist Newsletter