European and local elections are now upon us. While the ‘Europe question’ has dominated the news agenda for over a year, the elections themselves have taken a back seat. Most attention has focused on the United Kingdom Independence party rather than the European Union reform programmes of the major national parties. Even with a week to go, the policy focus from the parties themselves has been national, though on the Today programme this week Ed Miliband did get in a reminder that the possibility of ‘Brexit’ is the greatest current threat to national prosperity and openness.

Labour comes to these elections in a decent but not fantastic place. Polls range from a few points below Ukip and the Tories to topping the poll with 28 per cent to Ukip’s 24 per cent. Just like the general election, few people seem confident enough to call it. So what can Labour realistically expect, and what should be the reaction to results?

Coming from such a low base, we do need to have a good showing, though it is worth remembering that William Hague achieved good council and European election results and we all know where that ended up come the general election. A good rule of thumb is to aim for an extra seat in each region. This would put us on 24 members of the European parliament and back as a significant presence in a European setting.

Given the electoral system of proportional representation, we cannot do much about the seats Ukip will get. Squeezing them out completely in any one region is too much to ask if their support materialises.

More important than the total number of MEPs we gain is that we need to be seen to be taking votes from each party, from all sections of the electorate, and in all regions. This will allow us to signal that we are on the right trajectory. The post-election examination needs to be meticulous is finding out where we won and where we did not do so well and must inform our campaign strategy for the next year.

After months of indecision, Labour were able to create a positive vision of Europe, advocating realistic reforms. If we do not achieve the equivalent of one extra in each region, that is no reason to change this. Strategy is about picking something and sticking to it. Which is why the clarions of reversing the position on a Europe referendum, or shifting focus to immigration-scepticism and talking down our own record should be rejected. If the Tories do badly I expect them to turn significantly to the right to chase Ukip votes in preparation for 2015. Let them do that. Labour should not change policy or focus on Europe now, whatever the outcome of tomorrow’s elections.

Having said that, there is one way we should turn our attention very definitely to Ukip. Nigel Farage has looked most on the back foot when questioned about the expenses and attendance of his party’s representatives. These elections may provide us with more Ukip MEPs, which means more opportunity to properly scrutinise what they do when they are voted in. We must explain to the electorate that it is not only on policy where they are wrong. They simply have no interest in the political process.

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Alan Donnelly is a former leader of Labour in Europe and a political consultant. He tweets @alandonnelly57