Let me count the ways I am a rubbish activist. I loathe leafleting. I do not like bothering voters with impertinent questions about how they are going to vote. I have an odd name, so, when phone canvassing, I invent a dull one and then forget my own alleged name.
It is a long charge sheet. Somewhere on it lies the fact that I do not particularly like conferences. Forgive me, but it is true. I am not even going to Progress’ one. Which is probably a reason you should. It is on Saturday.
Yet the allure of the exotic and the strange is great. So when Progress asked me if I wanted to go to the ConservativeHome ‘Securing A Majority’ conference last Saturday, I was agog. How would they be different? What would be the same? Would they have someone asking interminable questions with no discernible interrogative clause?
Indeed, there were some wonderful similarities between left and right.
There were advisers and journalists hanging around outside chatting, far too important to listen to the damn discussions.
The parliamentary candidate for safe Tory Wealden, Nusrat Ghani, cheered me by making a speech which declared her simple desire to serve her community and her disavowal of ideology, political stratagems or careerist tendencies. She asked only to serve, as the man once said. Her earnestness was identical to speeches I have heard from many Labour candidates and was only slightly undermined by the fact she has already been a candidate and professionally describes herself as ‘an expert in political communications’. She will be on the Tory frontbench soon enough, I expect.
I had promised myself I would not take the easy route of mocking Tory boys, all pocket squares and school ties, but in truth there were not many to mock. Maybe it is power, or my advancing age, but the audience seemed fairly typical young professionals. White, reasonably well-off and slightly glossy. Compared to Labour events, there was less artful scruffiness, a style more Bond Street and Selfridges than Converse and Dalston. But I like Selfridges, so I cannot sneer at that.
Enough cod sociology! What of the content?
I was worried for a while. Although somewhat relieved that last week’s local elections had not been worse, the Tories gathered seemed to have decided that the way to prosper was to talk about jobs, and housing, and opportunities for the aspirational middle class.
Was this a party marching onto the territory of spreading wealth and opportunity to the many, not just the few? Robert Halfon, Tim Montgomerie, George Osborne, Isabel Hardman, Lottie Dexter, all seemed to suggest it might be. I shifted uneasily in my seat at this seditious talk of creating a million jobs and of using public money to build half a million homes.
These Tories did not fear Labour. If anything, they regarded us with a sort of amused contempt. Yet they acknowledged that was not enough to guarantee victory for Toryism. In Osborne’s words, they needed to ‘listen, respond and deliver’, address the public mood of discontent and to turn ‘anger into answers’.
The problem was, listen to what, and give which answers? As one questioner pointed out, United Kingdom Independence party voters wanted lower immigration, an end to HS2, lower welfare spending and to leave Europe. Was Osborne proposing to respond and deliver to this agenda? He was not, and he left for Newark, unruffled.
After lunch (another difference: I have never been as well catered at a Labour conference. Lamb Tagine. Couscous. Eton Mess) we heard from peer and polling guru Lord Ashcroft.
If Osborne had been confident, Ashcroft forebode. His manner was that of an Old Testament prophet, warning the foolish of wrath to come if they did not heed him. His marginal seat polling showed the Tories losing 83 seats. People prefered Cameron to Miliband, a Tory economy to Labour growth, but were dissatisfied over Europe, the cost of living, the NHS and immigration, and resolutely refused to put their cross in the Tory box.
What to do about this? The advice seemed less clear than in Ashcroft’s previous reports, like Smell the Coffee. What if the coffee was now immigration flavoured?
This sums up the dilemma that ran through the conference’s theme of ‘securing a majority’.
There is a choice for modern Toryism about who to listen to, and how to respond. The Tories could seize the agenda of jobs, and housing and better public services, making themselves the party of the reforming centre. Alternatively they can try to protect their right flank, with talk of tax cuts and immigration caps and deregulation, of limiting the unions and biffing Europe.
This latter approach was more often advocated in the workshops than in the main speeches, with speakers from MigrationWatch and The Freedom Association talking confidently of the appeal of tax cuts and limiting immigration.
Too often, their leaders seem to want to do both, which means they achieve neither. Tellingly, when Osborne was questioned about this choice, he did not engage with the argument.
I began to suspect that leading Tories think they do not have to choose; that they do not have to confront, believing that the weakness of others allows them to dismiss the agenda of their friends and allies.
This would be a mistake. The Tories should choose one path or the other. For Labour, it would be better if they turned their eyes right. For the country, it would better if they look left. I have a sneaking suspicion they will continue to stare at their feet, firm in their strategic irresolve.
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Hopi Sen is a Labour blogger who writes here, is a contributing editor to Progress, and writes a fortnightly column for ProgressOnline here
I also went to the Conference so Hopi you were not the only
Leftie (or “Leftist” as Tim Montgomerie called me). I was slightly
flattered that not just Tim, Mark Wallace and Iain Dale seemed to know who I
was but even Michael Ashcroft (known hereafter as “My mate Mike”)
called me Paddy. He was exceptionally friendly – as were the others. I enjoyed
the day very much. Obviously falling in love with Isabel Hartmann was the high
point. I can’t actually remember what she said so transfixed was I by her
loveliness. Beauty and Brains. Calm down, calm down.I agree with you about
Nusrat Ghani who was a class act. She spoke sense, clearly and well. As did the
outstanding Robert Halfon. Now not being of the Tory tribe I only knew vaguely
of Mr Halfon but when he said “I admire the Labour Party” I was not
the only one who sat up. He meant, as he explained, Labour’s belief. Not its
nature (obviously) but its strength. He wants the Conservatives to believe in
what they believe as strongly as Labourites believe in what THEY believe. Good
point. Mr Halfon sat behind me later and I chatted with him. I asked him why he
was on crutches – massive faux pas as I had no idea he is permanently disabled!
He didn’t seem to mind and was exceptionally friendly. My sort of Tory, apart from
the Euroscepticism – what a shame. Still a very nice man.
Less nice by a long way was Mark Reckless. He struck me as a
Tory from Central casting, besuited, predictable, slightly superior and bland.
He made the most asinine pitch of the day when he suggested that if the Tories
win the Election and there is a renegotiation of the UK’s position in the EU
the Government should not, pre Referendum, make a recommendation. He’s
presumably worried they’d recommend “In” rather than the “Out”
he wants! Reckless struck me as a very ambitious and ruthless man who uses
Europhobia to his own advantage. Very calculating and, as I say, not very nice.
I didn’t like Simon Richards, the Freedom Association man
very much either. He struck me as slightly deranged in his off the cuff speech
on the need to reduce taxes. His friend Matthew Sinclair from “Europe
Economics” was better but neither of them seemed to link tax and
expenditure except in the most general terms. The only expenditure cut Richards
proposed was to abolish the BBC licence fee! Ministers now have more power over
investment decisions in the Energy sector than when it was nationalised Matt
Sinclair said – which was an interesting point!.
Dominic Raab, a bit of a bête noir with Lefties, was I
thought very impressive. Spoke well and made sense. Much nicer than his reputation!
I really did not warm to Alp Mehmet of “Migration Watch”. His use of
data seemed selective and nuanced. Under questioning he admitted that zero
immigration is the goal he’s aiming at. Oh well. From the hall this was
questioned, and indeed much of the questioning seemed to be from rather liberal
Tories. Young professionals as Hopi puts it.
Douglas Carswell was a bit pointedly rude to the Labour
leadership at the beginning of his speech and seemed a bit pleased with himself
about his Clacton fish and chip suppers. That said although I disagree with
most of his political positions I rather admire him – he’s no pompous Tory
grandee!
I met the Film Director John Walsh (“ToryBoy the
Movie”) over lunch. Very impressive chap and I’ve now bought the DVD! He
shows that the Tory tribe is more diverse than us Lefties might think. Indeed I
felt that overall there were fewer Colonel Blimps than I might have expected.
There was one, however, ahead of me in the Tangine queue who announced that
he’d voted UKIP and sounded off that there wasn’t enough room for more
immigrants in Britain. He was roundly put in his place by a tall, very smart
youngish woman in a red dress who told him that there was plenty of room. This
was my moment of the day and I discretely whispered ‘Well done” to her.
She’s apparently on the Parliamentary candidates list – Very charming, I hope
she gets a seat!
There was much talk of UKIP and Iain Dale chaired a final
session about how the Tories should deal with them. Apart from “No deals
or pacts” nobody seemed to know. Iain Martin got close when he said that
Ronald Regan was the model – someone who united very different types of people.
I’m not a Tory and I’m never going to be but I will say this. It is essential that
the Conservative Party sees off UKIP and soon and to do this they do need to bring
most of the UKIP defectors back into the Tory tent.
Exploring all the options by eating at the Devil’s table requires using a long spoon. Fuck the Tories and get on with promoting Ed Miliband. Giving them [Tories] free advertising as having better dinners than Labour’s is peurile crap and unworthy of Mr Sen. 100% commitment to LABOUR or get on your bike, matey.
Whilst you are at it, try getting a table at a 6am breakfast meeting between our deputy PM and Vince Cable this morning [any morning in the next 12 months] that report would be an interesting read. [Take your own Visene eyedrops and Seltzers]. Clegg is right on Europe and Farage is wrong. Simples. Tories have to go and stay gone.
I only wish ‘we’ could keep our eye on the ball and scrap all the conferences [primarily in London Town] and spend the time on workshops which promoted more job opportunity and less xenophobic meanderings – racism is in the eye of the beholder.
This is where democracy trips up – just because c65% of the Nation felt we should get out of Europe [on purely racist grounds] doesn’t mean that they are in any way correct – Hitler[spit] had about the same % of followers in the 1930s and see where that got him and Italy
.
Its as plain as the nose on my face that some people have forgotten that hating eachother on the grounds of race and colour alone can lead to massive conflicts on a World wide scale.
PS Leafletting, doorstep calls and using a bit of shoe leather never hurt anyone – bites on the bum from Rottweilers & Staffies notwithstanding.
Farage had his Yankee contingent down here in Plymouth last week on the eve of the elections handing out leaflets and encouraging voters to go the Ukipped way – he also spent plenty on BIG “VOTE UKIP” billboard signages in rural areas in the S.West [and I am sure in other areas in UK as well]. He even had small flags and pennants on top of the local fishing launches/ferries. Clever ad’ man, I will give his Ad Agency that.
Read my lips: Advertising pays! Farage and his motley crew knows this. Apart from the comedic Captain Morgan persona he portrays, he is savvy enough to know that unless you get your message across at street level you don’t get voters – and he proved it – by leafletting and doorstep calling and using his Yankee{?] confreres to assist in Plymouth.
You work it out, but not everyone can afford to buy the New Statesman @£4quid a copy.
Hopi has performed a useful task in gathering empirical evidence that confirms [a] the decades-long split in the Tory Party; [b] the worsening suppuration of that party’s Achilles heel .
The split is between One Nation Tories and Thatcherites. The Achilles heel is the failure of the Tory high command to choose between two narratives that are mutually exclusive in large measure.
This heel is not healing. It’s getting worse and worse. Even the IMF and the Bank of England have become uneasy fellow-travellers of Thatcherism / neo-liberalism. Even they advocate greater economic equality.
What Hopi has seen at ConservativeHome surely teaches One Nation Labour that it can strike with success at that suppurating Achilles heel.
Is Cameron a Thatcherite? That’s the question the Tories dare not answer.