‘We are not short of ideas – what is missing is the political will’. These words, by European Commission vice-president Joaquín Almunia, captured perfectly the mood at yesterday’s Policy Network conference on the aftermath of the European elections. More than by just populist stress, the European Union is afflicted by a crisis of leadership. Matteo Renzi’s spectacular performance in Italy bears witness to the fact that the former might only be a symptom of the latter.

Four broad themes were discussed during the conference, and each of them illustrated this worryingly low ability ‘to make things work’.

First, the ongoing battle around the next European commission president. Most speakers agreed that Jean-Claude Juncker does not represent the kind of fresh impulse the EU now needs. Nevertheless, that national leaders, and in particular David Cameron, did not prevent the current stand-off from happening in the first place was testimony to their lack of engagement at EU level. As Gideon Rachman put it, ‘the European parliament is a lobby for the European parliament.’ In some respects, the parliament managed to persuade the media and the wider public that the spitzenkandidaten procedure represented a democratic breakthrough rather than a risk of politicisation for the commission.

Second, the economic crisis and reforms in the eurozone. Calm has returned to the markets, and, if anything, this is due to the European Central Bank’s bold moves under Mario Draghi’s authority. At the conference, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister and president of the Eurogroup, refused to comment on the ECB’s latest decision to cut interest rates, only to warn against excessively high expectations. He insisted on the need for euro area member states to keep pace with fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. ‘You should never waste a recovery,’ he warned. That being said, there was a notable change of tone at the mention of connecting fiscal and reform policy. The strict fiscal adjustment trajectory could be paused when countries are on ‘safe territory’ and committed to implementing reforms. This could be the case for Italy, and perhaps Spain, but certainly not France.

Almunia and Shahin Vallée, an economic adviser to Herman Van Rompuy, sounded more worried. They bemoaned the absence of coordinated action by governments to boost demand. This makes structural reforms unlikely to pay off. In the long run it was not clear where the eurozone is heading. Apart from the progress made on the banking union, few steps have been made to implement the 2012 ‘Roadmap towards a genuine Economic and Monetary Union.’ Ideas such as ‘reform contracts,’ a cyclical adjustment fund and a eurozone budget face huge political resistance.

Third, on the single market, there is likewise potential for progress, but most speakers acknowledged the political difficulties. An energy common market is desperately needed for Europe to free itself from external dependency. However, that would mean taking on ‘national champions,’ pooling network investment and harmonising rules on a much larger scale. In the same vein, achieving a genuine digital single market calls for a unified European privacy regime. These are clearly two ambitions on which the next commission will need to focus and navigate amid diverse national interests.

Where does that leave Britain? The mood was neither particularly upbeat, nor excessively pessimistic. As Roger Liddle and Michael Moore MP remarked, David Cameron will certainly obtain some concessions on his ‘EU reform’ agenda. A conversation has started on curtailing free movement, cutting ‘red tape,’ and increasing the role of national parliaments. Yet, these modest achievements probably will not satisfy Eurosceptic Conservative and United Kingdom Independence party members. Meanwhile, and as Dijsselbloem warned, eurozone integration would not stop for Britain’s sake. Pragmatic arrangements could certainly be found to protect the interests of the ‘euro-outs’, but blackmail was the least advisable strategy for the British prime minister.

In this context of uncertainty, it is worth concluding with Tony Blair’s words on his 27 May Today Programme interview when asked what EU leaders should do after the elections: ‘Well, leaders must lead.’

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Renaud Thillaye is deputy director of Policy Network