So the dust settles after the prime minister’s rout at the European council. Thanks in no small part to David Cameron’s astonishingly amateurish attempt to block Jean-Claude Juncker, the former Luxembourg prime minister is secure as next European commission president.
Having lost the argument about the man, the prime minister switched to concentrate on the procedure, and promptly lost that argument too. In the course of 48 hours last week both Juncker and the future role of the European parliament were strengthened. We have seen this before: John Major saddled Europe with Juncker’s predecessor Jacques Santer – who was subsequently dismissed.
Now he is in post, what sort of commission president will Juncker be? Will he push for ever closer union? Is his five-year goal a treaty that brings further integration to the European Union? As I wrote last month, it is pragmatism and vision that makes a great commission president.
Juncker and his college of commissioners have to focus first and foremost on the poor state of the EU economy, the lack of growth, high levels of unemployment and the risk of deflation in the eurozone area. Any other agenda for the foreseeable future will see support for the EU and its main political parties continue to haemorrhage to the benefit of Europe’s political extremes, who did so well in the European parliament elections. The situation really is that serious.
This will of course mean that ever closer union within the eurozone will continue, particularly in relation to fiscal policy. There is no way out of this, as disappointing as that is for Cameron. The eurozone’s structural weaknesses have to be fixed to prevent a rerun of 2008.
It is also clear that the French and Italian governments backed Juncker only with guarantees on a plan to bring a significant stimulus to the EU economy. And so between Juncker and European Central Bank president Mario Draghi they must shape a growth strategy that does not frighten the Germans but which addresses voters’ fears about their economic future and helps to lift France out of its downward economic spiral. In addition, the role of the European parliament, through the determination of the re-elected president of the parliament Martin Schulz, will continue to develop way beyond what it was when I was first elected 25 years ago. Thus the counterbalance has been provided, and prioritising ever closer political union with a federal state as an end goal is not an option for Juncker. Paradoxically, this is still no good for David Cameron.
Therefore, though I have no truck with ‘arch-federalism’, our biggest criticism of Juncker should not be that he harbours federalist tendencies. The real criticism is that since the euro almost imploded while he was chair of the Eurogroup Juncker’s chairmanship was largely a failure. He was unable to secure the political support for the balanced programme necessary to protect the currency while ensuring Europe was not pushed into a deep recession. It was after all, the ECB president’s intervention at that time that finally saw off the speculators. Juncker simply could not provide the decisive leadership at that critical moment. I am sure this was not lost on this consummate EU insider.
He must know that the public judgment on his commission will be based on whether people across Europe start to see and feel the benefits of being part of an efficient and globally competitive economic union. That must be Juncker’s ‘Grand Projet’ for his term as president. And, if he is successful, he will have done more to secure the long-term future of the EU and the defeat of extremism than any potential new treaty could ever hope to achieve.
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Alan Donnelly is a former leader of Labour in Europe and a political consultant. He tweets @alandonnelly57
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