Fantasy politics

Like many activists who live in other regions, I was pleased with the electoral triumph in May of Labour in London. But reading all those celebratory tweets from those who ran Labour’s national campaign, I felt a sense of unease because the London effect seems to be distorting views in the party. I read analyses that said we will win in 2015 by keeping our 2010 voters and adding all those ‘left-of-centre’ Liberal Democrat voters, while the United Kingdom Independence party takes votes just from the Tories. The results of the local and European elections proved that that analysis is fantasy politics. For all of us living outside the M25, the results were patchy as best – and disappointing in many places.

In the suburbs, shires and seaside towns, Labour made some gains, but not as many as would have been expected – and even faced losses to Ukip in some crucial councils. Some self-appointed experts seemed surprised that, in most parts of the country, a Liberal Democrat collapse delivered votes to the Tories and Ukip rather than Labour, which shows just how dangerous it is to look at the whole country through the prism of London. In the capital the Liberal Democrats may well appeal disproportionately to centre-left voters, but with some exceptions (mostly university towns), in those crucial shires and suburban areas, most 2010 Liberal Democrat voters would never support Labour; they are actually disgruntled centre-right voters. When the Liberal Democrat vote collapses in the south, it tends to benefit the Tories more than Labour. And it certainly appears that many 2010 Liberal Democrat voters decided to continue registering a protest vote, by picking Nigel Farage rather than David Cameron.

This should be no surprise. If you look at the Westminster seats the Liberal Democrats have held, very few are in traditional Labour areas: Twickenham, Sutton, Yeovil, Newbury, Hereford and my former home town of Guildford. These are all places where the Liberal Democrats built a council base by winning seats from the Tories rather than from Labour, and then went on to win the parliamentary seat. The tactics used to win council seats from the Liberal Democrats in Southwark and Brent will not work with Liberal Democrat voters in Portsmouth. The idea that 2010 Liberal Democrat voters will all switch to Labour in the crucial southern target seats in 2015 is an illusion.

The other assumption many are making is that Ukip will not be a factor in 2015, and that what votes they do get will come from the Tories. Across the south, it took votes from the Liberal Democrats (protest vote switchers) and from Labour. We saw in Thurrock and Portsmouth, and even Rotherham, that Ukip can get support from people who are supposed to be ‘core Labour voters’. Any belief that 2010 Labour voters will all inevitably vote Labour in 2015 has been fatally undermined. Ukip may only have got five per cent of the vote in London, but in many places outside the M25 it got 20-25 per cent, and even 30 per cent in some areas. It took a lot of council seats, but nothing like its vote share (ironically, for a party which opposes proportional representation). Significant support for Ukip in 2015 could ruin Labour’s chances in southern target seats.

The view from London – with a Liberal Democrat collapse benefitting Labour while Ukip erodes the Tory vote – is a seductive one. And a 35 per cent strategy might work if everywhere was like London. But it is now clearer than before that Labour will only win a majority in 2015 if we have policies and messages that will make people switch from Tory to Labour. As we did in 1997, but also as we did in 1974, 1964 and, yes, in 1945.

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