Reformist social democrats offer a glimmer of hope for the left in Europe, writes Michael McTernan
In April this year, the Financial Times’ Tony Barber observed that the flag of modern social democracy flies again in Europe. He was referring to a new generation of centre-left leaders who are being forced to define for themselves a principled, but tough-minded and realistic, approach to government in the economically hard-pressed societies of western Europe. Reference was made to Matteo Renzi in Italy, the appointment of Manuel Valls as France’s prime minister and the tough brand of reformist politics that Helle Thorning-Schmidt has practised in Denmark.
Barber’s analysis pointed out that
the tide of European centre-left politics is turning once more in favour of a young, self-consciously dynamic generation of leaders, scornful of socialist shibboleths and, in some cases, trusted more by the general public than by their party stalwarts.
Renzi has successfully moved against the apparatchiks of the Italian Democratic party, refusing to fall in with the old power cliques and positioning himself as a politician outside of the established order. His historic result of just over 40 per cent in the recent European elections has granted him significant political capital and legitimacy at both a national and European Union level. With his ambitious agenda of economic and political reform, he is now seen in many quarters as a beacon for the renewal of social democracy and the revival of the European project.
In France, Valls is an uncompromising reformist who is more popular with the public than with the Parti Socialiste, although this support looks pretty fragile in today’s acrimonious French social environment. He has in the past offered up Blairite mantras like ‘reform or die’ to his party and was regularly ranked as France’s most popular politician owing to his tough stance on immigration and crime when he was interior minister. As Gérard Grunberg of Sciences Po has observed, Valls’ approach is combative with little sensitivity for the left of the party. In this sense, there is hope that he will take on France’s competitiveness and debt problems, but, at the same time, there is some risk of a Socialist party split over the direction he will take the government.
In Denmark, Thorning-Schmidt has been prime minister since 2011. Despite poor opinion polls and a series of ministerial crises, she has stuck to her hardline reform agenda geared towards putting Denmark’s economy and welfare model on a leaner footing. Her hope is that the Danish economy and jobs market will have turned a corner by the next election, allowing her to justify her remedies. It remains to be seen how this will go, with the collateral damage so far leaving the party on around 19 per cent of the vote, having lost the recent European election, and many traditional voters, to the rightwing populist Danish People’s party.
Meanwhile, in Germany, the social democratic SPD is in coalition with Angela Merkel’s CDU. It holds important ministries, not least leader Sigmar Gabriel’s super-portfolio of the economy and energy. The Dutch and Irish Labour parties are also the minority party in government, but have been badly bruised by their experiences. Centre-left parties also lead in seven other EU member states.
Furthermore, the Swedish election takes place in September and the Social Democratic party is 8-10 points ahead in the polls. Its leader, Stefan Löfven, is cautious in his style, putting a clear focus on economic competence and building credibility on jobs and education. He has a good story to go with this, as a former steelworker who understands the opportunities as well as challenges of global competition, and the need to match a modern industrial policy and social investment welfare state with wealth- and job-creation policies.
The optimistic scenario is therefore that a broad new alliance of social democrats is emerging that might make Europe work for progressive politics through a clear agenda on jobs, growth and competitiveness. Here, the promise of Renzi is already evident. The SPD’s Gabriel recently defied Merkel by endorsing the Italian prime minister’s calls to add flexibility to the eurozone’s economic rules and boost an EU-wide investment programme – a proposal also backed by the French Socialist government. Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Eurogroup chief and Labour finance minister of the Netherlands, has also put his weight behind a symbolic deal ‘between the German side of Europe and the Italian side of Europe’, where eurozone countries could get more time to meet budget targets as part of a contract to carry out effective reform.
The more pessimistic and sober note about the state of the left in Europe, however, is increasing voter fragmentation and culture wars. Aside from Renzi’s success in Italy, centre-left parties are losing votes to leftwing socialist parties on the economic axis, and to populist radical right parties and social liberal, lifestyle parties such as Greens and feminists on the cultural axis. Populists are also becoming increasingly adept at criss-crossing these lines, combining left-leaning anti-globalisation rhetoric with a corrosive discourse on immigration, Europe and welfare. On top of this, young voters are turning their backs on party politics.
In Sweden, where the Social Democrats polled over 40 per cent in every election in five decades up to 1991, their vote share has declined significantly. They won the European election last month – but with only 24.5 per cent of the vote. The Greens, the Left party and the new Feminist Initiative siphoned a combined 27 per cent of the centre-left vote. As Aftonbladet columnist Katrine Kielos has pointed out, new electoral groupings of voters have been around for a while, but they always operated under the umbrella of the almighty Social Democratic party. This allure and catch-all appeal is slipping away in the modern era. The same is true in Germany, where the SPD is marooned on 26 per cent. Its last two election results in 2009 and 2013 registered historic lows of 23 per cent and 25.7 per cent.
The other note of warning is that economies may be healing from the great recession, but a set of more challenging long-term structural trends that built up before 2007 remain to be reckoned with – with potentially significant ramifications for centre-left coalitions. As the analysis by Policy Network on ‘the politics of the 5-75-20 society’ has set out, this involves coping with growing global economic forces, the transition to a post-industrial knowledge and service economy, and the spread of new technologies. On one hand, progressive politics may be needed more than ever to equip people with the education, skills and safety nets required for a disruptive era; but, on the one other hand, if ill-managed, these trends will bring growing insecurity and vulnerability – in short, an attractive climate for populists.
There is also evidence that these trends are having an impact upon once-secure groups of middle-class professionals such as academics, teachers and engineers, whose wages have been eroded over time and who now face stiffer competition as emerging economies move up the value chain. The implication and worry is that, because of concerns over economic competitiveness and income shares, these groups of voters become more wary of taxation and redistribution and thus more likely to switch political allegiances to the right in tough times.
This is the social democrat fight: to build winning coalitions in open economies at a time of political, economic and social stress. Renzi is the standard-bearer to watch over the next six months as Italy takes on the European council presidency and he tries to push through his governing agenda. If he can make half of his promises stick, there will be notable lessons for the left on: his style of politics and willingness to challenge his own party machine; his new coalition of voters; his ambitious political and economic reforms; and his understanding of the necessity of using the EU and European alliances – in a country with relatively high levels of Euroscepticism – to boost jobs, growth and competitiveness that can fund the social democratic social investment state and prepare people for a more competitive and disruptive era. He still has everything to prove.
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Michael McTernan is acting director of Policy Network
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