Since winning the elections to the European parliament in May, the United Kingdom Independence party has been busy. While Ukip and its leader, Nigel Farage, are no longer dominating the media, ahead of its annual conference in September the party remains confident about its future.

Unlike the aftermath of previous European elections in 2004 and 2009, its support has not crashed: Ukip is averaging 12 per cent in the opinion polls, more than enough to cause serious damage in Conservative, and some Labour, seats in 2015. Meanwhile, it has a credible chance of winning Thurrock and Thanet South next year, and will come a strong second in Great Yarmouth. My own research has identified five Labour seats as being especially vulnerable to Ukip’s insurgency in 2015 and beyond: Rotherham, Dudley North, Ashfield, Plymouth Moor View and Great Grimsby, but there are many more where economic stagnation is seeing rising votes for Farage.

However, Ukip’s ability to mobilise a long-term insurgency will depend heavily on its own organisation. To have a clear impact under First Past The Post Ukip needs to overhaul its internal operation to avoid the mistakes that threatened to derail its European campaign, and lay a foundation for the post-Farage era. The 2015 election is likely to be Farage’s last campaign as leader. This is why, over the summer, Ukip has been quietly making changes, three of which are particularly important.

First, a concerted effort is under way to remedy the fragility that comes with relying so heavily on Farage, and to enhance Ukip’s image as a party led by ‘real people’. Ukip has promoted a number of its most loyal activists, most of whom you have probably not heard of, to manage key portfolios. Tim Aker, still only in his twenties but already a member of the European parliament and Ukip’s parliamentary candidate in Thurrock, has taken charge of the party’s policy review. Diane James has taken charge of justice and home affairs, Jane Collins has employment, Jill Seymour has transport, Louise Bours has health, Margot Parker has small business, the Muslim MEP Amjad Bashir has communities, former Labour activist Ray Finch has fisheries, Mike Hookem has defence, Steven Woolfe is the spokesman for financial affairs and Neil Hamilton is responsible for Ukip’s regional development. Notice all the women? Ukip’s attempt to reach out to female voters will be supported by Suzanne Evans, whose competent media performances during the European elections won her praise inside Ukip, and who now has an even bigger profile as deputy chair. It is too early to tell whether any of these activists could replace Farage, but make no mistake: many of them are competent and they contrast sharply with the older generation of Ukippers of the Godfrey Bloom era. A female-led Ukip with Farage hanging on as media spokesman is a realistic next step.

The second change is a major policy review, the results of which will be announced at the conference in Doncaster – not only Ed Miliband’s back yard but also the scene of a recent Ukip by-election victory – in September. Farage has already detailed a few offers, including greater use of referendums to give voters more of a say over key issues. But also expect to see a deliberate pushback on Labour’s claims back in May that Ukip would charge voters to see their local GP, or to use the NHS. This is what made Labour’s anti-Ukip campaign so weak; it hung its entire focus on policies that Ukip’s leadership never sanctioned, and so it will be easy for the party to now counter these claims on the doorstep. Much of the focus will also be about broadening Ukip’s message beyond immigration and Europe. Immigration remains the number one issue in British politics but Ukip also recognises that it also needs to talk about other issues.

Finally, Ukip is likely to devote more serious effort to its general election candidates. Farage was irritated by his party’s failure to weed out inappropriate candidates in 2014, who he described as ‘Walter Mitty’s’. While Ukip will struggle to control the social media output of its local candidates, there will be a more serious screening of its parliamentary candidates. In May we learned that simply focusing on the ramblings of Ukip candidates makes little difference to the party’s core voters. But Ukip is actively clamping down on these weaknesses, and so for this reason both voters and the main parties may find themselves confronted with a more resilient machine come May 2015.

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Matthew Goodwin is co-author of Revolt on the Right: Explaining Support for the Radical Right in Britain

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Photo: European Parliament