However tempting it might be to spectate at a possible slugfest between the Tories and the United Kingdom Independence party in the forthcoming Rochester and Strood by-election, Labour should make every effort to fight to win a seat held in the last decade – and sent both our major opponents packing.
The Tories are not writing this contest off – quite the reverse – with David Cameron having already made one visit and other cabinet ministers and backbenchers expected to descend in droves over the next month in a determined effort to reverse the humiliation inflicted in Clacton. The use of an open primary to choose their candidate will doubtless have added to their publicity. Ed Miliband, the shadow cabinet and backbenchers must not just match but exceed this effort in a constituency 40 miles from Westminster. It was held for Labour by Bob Marshall-Andrews from 1997 to 2010 and is at the centre of a swath of other previously Labour-held seats won in 1997: Gravesham and Dartford to the west; Gillingham and Rainham, Sittingbourne and Sheppey to the east; Chatham and Aylesford to the south. No doubt these constituency parties their candidates will be observing the performance in Rochester and Strood very closely.
Failure to engage will raise all kinds of awkward questions. If we allow Ukip to mount the main challenge to the Tories, we should not be surprised if voters respond to their call. Matthew Goodwin and Robert Ford in their book Revolt on the Right have already documented Ukip’s ability to appeal to disillusioned working-class voters. If this happens in Rochester and Strood, what sort of signal does that send out, not just to the immediate neighbours, but to scores of other seats (and not just those designated marginal?) In short, who, in a fluid electoral climate, are the opposition worthy of the name?
A Labour win in Rochester and Strood is possible if we match and preferably exceed the efforts of our opponents. We already had our candidate, Naushabah Khan, in place to promote the range of policies from the recent policy review that will form the core of the 2015 election manifesto. The campaign should be treated as a dry run for that contest.
A Labour win in Rochester and Strood would provide a great boost to party morale as well as providing the satisfaction of a simultaneous blow to David Cameron and Nigel Farage. In the case of the latter it would raise doubts about his ability to take Thanet South (by chance another seat that Labour held from 1997 to 2010). A good second place would obviously not have as great an impact but it would demonstrate our ability to be competitive and, if necessary, offer the time to fine-tune our policies. Third place would be quite unacceptable unless there was a genuine three way split following a full effort on our part.
If ‘one nation’ Labour is to be meaningful rather than a slogan, we must aspire to recapture the ground lost since 2001.The alternative is a return to the ‘southern discomfort’ originally diagnosed by Giles Radice in 1992 and which will haunt us with a vengeance unless we engage in this contest. Let us therefore go for what is by far the most attractive outcome!
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John Newham is a member of Progress
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JOIN LABOUR’S NAUSHABAH KHAN FIGHTING FOR LABOUR IN ROCHESTER AND STROOD THIS WEEKEND
Saturday 1 November – SUPER SATURDAY
On Saturday we’re having a mega campaign day across the constituency – great if you could come down! We’re meeting at the office at 73 Maidstone Road at 11am, and we’ll be out campaigning all day. We’ve got lots of doors to knock and leaflets to deliver!
Sunday 2 November – Battle Bus Day
On Sunday we’re lucky enough to have a bus of campaigners come from London to join us in our fight against UKIP and the Tories. We’re all gathering at the office at 73 Maidstone Road at 10.30am – please come down and join us. It’s going to be a great day of campaigning, and it would be great to see you there.