So it has started: the four million conversations that Labour activists will have on the doorstep between now and the election vs the long road to nowhere with the Conservatives.

Among these many conversations that members like myself will have with the British public, will include many with ethnic minorities. Having worked as much of the backbone of our country’s economic success and cultural evolution, ethnic minorities are, more than ever, crucial to a successful vote-winning coalition for a successful prospective party.

However, it seems that Labour cannot take the ethnic minority vote for granted any more. Recent polling data from the University of Manchester has suggested that the percentages of ethnic minorities self-consciously identifying as Labour has decreased: for Indian voters it has decreased from 77 per cent to 45 per cent; for Pakistani voters, the numbers are 79 per cent to 54 per cent; and for African voters, 79 per cent to 59 per cent. These statistics come five years following Labour securing the support of 68 per cent of Britain’s ethnic minority constituents.

While Labour has been grateful for the votes of confidence that ethnic minorities have placed in the party for generations, such certainty cannot be guaranteed in the future. According to a recent study by Demos, middle-class ethnic minorities could soon be fertile voters for the Conservative party as they move into affluent areas and have more choice and luxury in their lifestyles. If Labour does not address the aspirational diversity within the United Kingdom’s ethnic minority population, it risks a lethal exposure to our diverse range of supporters.

The increased affluence of many ethnic minorities, not to mention the increase in mixed-race relationships in the UK, shows how much the issue of ethnicity has changed. No longer can we talk about the ethnic minority population as a homogenous blob, in hoc to Labour in opposing Tory Powellism and absurd Tebbit cricket tests. While only 16 per cent of Britain’s ethnic population voted Conservative at the last election, there are uncomfortable words from the academic who conducted the research cited above, Maria Sobolewska: ‘The only thing now keeping minorities on side with Labour is the lack of [voting] alternatives’. This does not sound like the typical enthused voter base four months ahead of decision day.

For me one of the more revealing encounters on the doorstep was with black constituents in the affluent Croydon ward of Shirley where I was standing as a Labour candidate during the local elections last year was with one particular woman whose door I knocked on. She had not made her mind yet as to who to vote for yet, but she was seriously entertaining voting for Ukip – and this was a few months after Godfrey Bloom’s ‘Bongo Bongo land’ remark – on the basis of liking Nigel Farage’s apparent ‘straight-talking’ manner. If there was ever an example of why we should not assume the minority vote is in the bag, this was it.

As a One Nation party, Labour owes it to itself to strongly reflect the true nature of diversity and aspirational interests of the United Kingdom’s ethnic minority population. Tony Blair once said ‘The kaleidoscope has been shaken, the pieces are in flux, soon they will settle again.’ Like all other parts of the UK, shaken by the past five years, the voting intentions of Britain’s ethnic minorities are in flux, and in four months, they will settle. Let us reorder our approach to them before the settle is done.

———————————–

James Gill is a member of Progress. He tweets @JamesGill13

———————————–

Photo: UK Parliament