This is an ambitious attempt by a former Labour cabinet minister to rethink Labour’s doctrine and policy agenda for the post-crisis age. Peter Hain is audacious in aligning his own revisionism with that of the great post war theoretician, Anthony Crosland, who famously wrote The Future of Socialism nearly 60 years ago – arguably the greatest work of social democratic philosophy produced in the 20th century. Hain, author of more than 20 books including a poignant memoir of his childhood experience growing up in apartheid-era South Africa, deserves credit for undertaking a project of this scope. He challenges us to think hard about the nature of our commitment to social democratic ideas.
Hain’s central argument is for a radical alternative to ‘austerity’. Austerity refers to the cuts inflicted by the Conservative-led coalition government since 2010 alongside the apparent acquiescence of the Labour leadership to the ‘neoliberal’ agenda of retrenchment in the public realm. Hain’s clarion call is for the Labour party and the wider labour movement to rediscover the courage of its Keynesian convictions.
There are potential weaknesses with the Keynesian approach which Hain, at points, acknowledges. One concerns the plausibility of effective demand management in an internationalised economy. The United Kingdom depends on overseas lenders to fund its huge trade deficit which means retaining the confidence of the financial markets. We may not like this fact but unless we resolve the structural weaknesses in British economic performance there is little that can be done. The Hollande government in France has been blown off course by its failure to strengthen aggregate demand. Hain is correct to underline the central importance of Britain’s active engagement at the European level. Domestic economic policies have inherently limited purchase.
The second issue concerns the radicalism of Keynesian prescriptions. It is right that Britain should strive to achieve a higher rate of growth, raising personal living standards and making progress towards greater equality, but this cannot be achieved only by increasing the cumulative level of public spending in the economy. Britain’s economic problems are overwhelmingly structural, reflected in one of the highest current account deficits in the industrialised world, combined with an unusual degree of exposure to global shocks. Our economy is not productive enough and is overdependent on the City of London. Our skills base is weak at the lower end. Wage inequalities are accelerating, we are in danger of losing out in the development of new technologies, and we produce too few high-quality exports to pay our way in the world. That is the root cause of Britain’s malaise: the coalition government has lamentably failed to address these challenges, but they cannot plausibly be blamed merely on the cuts inflicted since 2010.
Hain’s world view is that the 2008 crash signalled a decisive shift to the left in the politics of the advanced industrialised democracies: politicians of appropriate ideological conviction and radical spirit will be rewarded with parliamentary majorities enabling them to carry out major reforms of our economy, our model of capitalism, and our political institutions. His political confidence and élan are admirable; whether they are really in tune with the spirit of the age remains to be seen.
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Patrick Diamond is vice-chair of Policy Network and lecturer in public policy at Queen Mary University of London
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Back to the Future of Socialism
Peter Hain
Policy Press | 304pp | £19.99
Buy both @£25 quid from amazon. but only one has an intro’ from gordie.
Who said, action speak louder than words?
Nice to see big John Prescott back in the frontline [fighting] ranks.
Go get ’em John. Thanks for all your help to us the poor folk.
I began my new book Back to the Future of Socialism by saying that it was about the spirit that gives the Labour Party its soul. Patrick Diamond ended his sympathetically critical review of it by doubting that my arguments are “in tune with the spirit of the age”. Sadly, the latter can be summed up in one four-letter word: cuts. Since my book appeared the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ Green Budget has confirmed that, if the Oxford Economics think tank is right about the degree of spare capacity in the economy – six times as great as the Office for Budget Responsibility says – then no more public spending cuts or tax rises would be needed to achieve Labour’s target of a balanced current budget in the next Parliament. In short, the budget deficit problem is entirely cyclical, not structural, and would evaporate away with economic growth.
The key to restoring momentum to Britain’s fast fading recovery is a £60 billion two year boost to public investment, focussed on infrastructure, skills, low carbon investment and housing. Patrick is correct that there are limits to what such a Keynesian stimulus can achieve, and to how much a government can borrow. But he has succumbed to George Osborne’s now discredited shrill warning in 2010 that Britain stood on the brink of bankruptcy and the financial markets were about to refuse to lend to the UK government. Despite borrowing hundreds of billions more than he planned since 2010 George Osborne has had no difficulty financing his budget deficits at record low interest rates. Labour cannot restore credibility with the voters by following Patrick’s advice to issue its own list of preferably painful cuts. Faster growth is the key to closing the budget deficit. Fairer growth through the kind of tax reforms I propose would see the gains shared instead of being hogged by the top 1 per cent. Greener growth would help build a more sustainable future.
Tackling Britain’s deep seated structural problems requires beginning again where the last Labour government (and industry secretary Peter Mandelson in particular) left off by adopting an
active industrial policy aimed at encouraging innovation. Neither Keynes nor Tony Crosland understood the vital part that technological change plays in economic growth. This is only one of the many unexpected ways in which the economy, and our understanding of it, has changed since Tony Crosland wrote The Future of Socialism sixty years ago. Reflecting on those changes and learning lessons from them is what my own book tries to do. It may go against the grain for some, but adjusting to the new reality by adopting a fresh approach is vital to
Labour and Britain’s future.