As usual, it has been an eventful week in American politics. And, as ever, everything that happens can be best understood by looking through the lens of polarisation. There is seemingly no event, domestic or foreign, trivial or of global importance, that does not end up being a shouting match. There is very little sense of a common purpose, no willingness to compromise and no will to even listen to the views of others. Here are some examples from the past seven days.
DHS funding
The Department of Homeland Security narrowly escaped a shutdown on Friday evening. This was averted by a temporary reprieve from Congress which will last for just three weeks. Earlier this year Obama announced executive action to legalise the status of millions of illegal immigrants, mainly from Mexico, in the United States. The Republicans were outraged by this and in response have tied DHS funding to preventing this action. The impact on the DHS would have been somewhat limited, in that most of the 250,000 staff are deemed essential and would have still been expected to turn up for work even if the department received a funding cut. However, 30,000 would have been told to stay at home, and there is no guarantee of payment for anyone. The likely scenario is that they would all have eventually got paid, but nonetheless there would have been an indefinite delay. For now, Congress has approved funding for the DHS, but only till 20 March, when Republican House majority leader John Boehner will have to somehow persuade his own party to compromise or risk facing the blame from the country.
Netanyahu’s speech to congress
Obama is playing a long game in his foreign policy. A key strategic aim of the US is to normalise relations with Iran. If this happens then it will be considerably easier to defeat Islamic State, fix the Israeli-Palestine conflict, and take the sting out of a number of other Middle East issues. The nuclear negotiations between the US and five other powers with Iran are therefore of utmost importance. But for many Republicans the very fact that the administration is even talking to Iran is a sell-out, and a knife in the back for Israel. And so the GOP has invited Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to speak to Congress on 3 March, where he will condemn the negotiations. Republicans hope that this will demonstrate that Obama is a bad ally to Israel and that he is being taken for a fool by Iran. In doing so, they are jeopardising the negotiations, as Iranians are unsure whether they can trust the US to stick to any agreements that are reached.
And the winner is… Jeb Bush
This past week saw the annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), the leading conservative GOP platform which typically provides solid pointers of who is likely to appeal the most to the right of the party ahead of any impending elections. Chris Christie was there, as were Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal and a host of other potential 2016 candidates. But the candidate who most improved his standing with conservatives, and thus his chances of gaining the Republican nomination, was Jeb Bush. Jeb is on the moderate wing of the GOP, a Republican who is liberal on social issues, a supporter of common core education, an advocate for legalizing existing immigrants, and a supporter of big business. If the GOP gets behind Jeb as a compromise candidate then they will have a very good chance of winning the general election. Every other candidate would likely lose to Hilary Clinton, or whoever the Democrats end up choosing, so long as the Dems choose fast and stand united.
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