The fact is that the Conservative party should not be in the running for victory on 7 May. In electoral terms, the Tories face an uphill battle to ever win a majority again. Not since 1992 have the Conservatives secured more than 40 per cent of the vote in a British general election – an astonishingly poor record for a party that was widely considered the dominant force in 20^th century British politics. The Tories’ political base outside England in Wales and Scotland has been almost entirely decimated since the 1990s. In the northern former industrial cities such as Manchester, Newcastle, Leeds, Birmingham and Liverpool, the Conservatives have neither members of parliament nor any significant representation in local government.

This political weakness is the product of more fundamental social forces which have made British society less hospitable territory for Conservatism. The British middle class, once the bedrock of the paternalistic Conservative tradition, has been rapidly changing since the 1970s, but the Tories have failed to understand or respond to underlying shifts in the nature of society. As Ed Miliband’s senior shadow cabinet adviser Jon Trickett has pointed out, the graduate population of the United Kingdom is expanding rapidly, and we are a more highly educated society than at any time since the second world war. More women than ever have university degrees, enter the jobs market, and occupy senior positions in the occupational hierarchy – however glaring employment and pay inequalities remain. All of these trends presage a bigger and more momentous change in the form of the thoroughgoing liberalisation of British society.

As a consequence, the Conservatives face what Trickett calls ‘an existential crisis’: their social base is increasingly divided between the ‘true blue’ Tories epitomised by Norman Tebbit, who want to maintain a traditional Conservative stance on issues such as the family, immigration and gay marriage, and ‘socially liberal’ Conservatives exemplified by Michael Portillo who are broadly comfortable with modernity and its consequences, accepting the social changes of the last 40 years.

Not surprisingly, David Cameron’s Tory party has struggled to develop a policy prospectus that can appeal with equal effectiveness to each of these social groupings. The emergence of the United Kingdom Independence party competing for votes on the populist right and left of British politics has complicated matters still further. Prior to 2010, Cameron’s instincts were unequivocally towards social liberalism: there was a toning-down of traditional Tory rhetoric on crime and immigration, while the concept of the ‘big society’ was precisely intended to appeal to the new liberal middle class who wanted an assurance that the Conservatives were no longer a party motivated solely by selfish individualism. Cameron reinforced the message relentlessly, travelling to the Arctic Circle to underline his commitment to combating climate change, embracing a new environmentalism.

Since entering government, however, compassion and generosity have been ditched in favour of a tough stance on immigration, austerity in public services, deep cuts in welfare, and, of course, a referendum on the UK’s continuing membership of the European Union. The strategic shift by the Conservatives from centre-right to hard right is designed to shore up the ‘true blue’ Tory base, epitomised by the departure of Cameron’s centrist policy adviser, Steve Hilton, and his replacement with Lynton Crosby, an ardently rightwing strategist from Australia.

The risk for them, of course, is that in shoring up the Tory base and stemming the loss of votes to Ukip, Cameron has further undermined the Tories’ objective of achieving at least 40 per cent of the popular vote. This will be even tougher next time. As Times columnist Tim Montgomerie points out, no modern British prime minister has managed to increase their share of the vote from one general election to another, such is the inbuilt effect of incumbency. Even in 2010, facing despite a deeply unpopular prime minister in the aftermath of the most serious economic crisis since the second world war, the Conservatives were still not capable of securing a parliamentary majority. There is toxicity to the Tory brand which, when combined with the fragmentation of their electoral and social base, explains the dramatic collapse of Conservative dominance in Britain.

Matters are made worse for the Conservatives by the fact that they have provided generally poor government over the last five years, totally failing to offer any coherent forward vision for the country. On the economy there has been no fundamental reform or rebalancing, despite the rhetoric prior to the 2010 election. It has been ‘business as usual’ for the City and financial interests while the regions outside London and the south-east are starved of investment. Some public spending cuts were necessary, but there has been no strategic approach based on protecting programmes that have a long-term payoff such as Sure Start and the education maintenance allowance: the interests of younger people and families have been woefully ignored. Cuts to poorer local authority areas have been intentionally harsher than those to richer ones. In fact, local government has been disregarded as a partner altogether. Meanwhile, perversely, reforms to schools and to the health service were pushed through with little reference to the financial context and scant demonstration of how the changes would help meet the funding challenge or improve quality; articles of faith and displays of ideology have abounded.

Internationally, the Conservative-led coalition has offered no credible vision of Britain’s place in the world, such is the rampant anti-Europeanism which remains in Tory ranks. Britain needs clear, focused and visionary leadership at a time of unprecedented threats and challenges from ‘homegrown terrorism’ to war on the edges of Europe in Ukraine and the Middle East. Cameron has manifestly failed to provide it.

For all of these reasons, the Conservatives should not even be in contention. Labour has an unprecedented opportunity to ensure that the next century is a progressive century rather than a Conservative one. Knowing this, we can all stand a little taller on the doorstep and be assured one more leaflet round could make all the difference.

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Photo: Dominic Campbell