By all means debate how we might have fought 2015 better, but let’s not ignore how profoundly the political challenge will have changed by 2020.

By the end of this year, ‘English Votes for English Laws’ will give English members of parliament a veto on laws affecting England. Even if Labour mistakenly opposes the change, we will not be able to fight the 2020 election promising to repeal it. Politics in England will, simply, be ‘English’ in a way we have never known before. Winning an English majority is no longer a desirable aim for a very good year, but the precondition to Labour again ever running the English NHS, English schools and all the other services now devolved to other nations.

Understanding that Labour must have an English majority is the starting point for any recovery. It demands a change in psychology as much as in politics. After 25 years of unsuccessfully campaigning to get Labour to take southern England seriously, I saw so many pay lip-service who, in their hearts, believed that we did not belong there, could not win there, and did not need to bother. The reliance on a Celtic crutch was hard to shake off.

Well, the Celtic crutch is gone. As I predicted on Progress on St George’s Day, there is a large ‘Goldilocks’ zone – not too hot, not too cold – that will suit David Cameron and Nicola Sturgeon all too well. The Scottish National party will get enough concessions to say it was all worthwhile and so avoid a referendum they might still lose. But Cameron will not give them too much, ensuring that the narrative of blaming Westminster remains a potent grievance for mobilising voters in Scotland. In this way, Cameron retains a union, keeps Labour tied down, and lets him concentrate on the England that is all that his MPs care about. And on English domestic policy, what happens in Scotland will in any case be largely irrelevant by 2020.

Seizing the challenge of an English majority is the best guard against any residual ‘We’ll do better next time’ optimism. London Labour’s overconfidence is surely misplaced. (Last time I looked London had a Tory mayor elected when Labour was riding high in the polls). George Osborne is forcing elected mayors on Labour councils, with a fair chance of seeing Labour leadership decapitated in some of our traditional strongholds. The United Kingdom Independence party threat to our vote may grow, not fall back. To cap it all, boundary changes will reduce the number of ‘safe’ Labour seats.

Aiming for an English Labour majority makes us ask what sort Labour party could win. It is a better way of posing the question than banal simplicities like ‘aiming for the centre-ground’ which are so tainted by past factional struggles and particular ideologies.

The good news is that the Labour party could win a majority. The success of Ben Bradshaw and the Labour council in Exeter gives us some insight and inspiration. As the party’s Southern Taskforce showed, voters in places that do not vote Labour share much the same spread of values as those where people do. The problem is that the voters we need do not see us talking about their lives, or even existing in their communities. We have a brief window of opportunity to replace the Liberal Democrats in many places. But their activists are street fighters and if we delay we will lose the chance for a generation.

The need for a Labour majority also reinforces the case for an English Labour party. English Labour would bring together those who understand the cultural dimension to English politics (like Jon Cruddas) with those who simply recognise that social democratic politics needs a party designed to win elections in the places that count. We will never develop the politics and organisation we need for an English majority in a party that does not even campaign as English Labour and where our English members have no chance to meet, debate or decide. The establishment of English Labour, aiming for an English majority, could be a rebranding every bit as powerful as New Labour was in its time.

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John Denham was member of parliament for Southampton Itchen from 1992-2015

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Photo: Chalkie