‘You’re right about the NHS, but I can’t vote for you.’ For the last 10 days of the election I sat in my office everyday calling undecided voters. I had some great conversations, but when it came to the punchline too many people were not prepared to put their trust in Labour. As polling day became closer, the same story, or variations on it, came back from canvassers on the doorstep. Too many people remained undecided – or that it what they told us. Our issues were important, on the future of the NHS, apprenticeships and affordable housing, but they simply did not make the grade with enough people.
The vibrancy of our campaign effort on the ground stands in stark contrast to the election result. This was the best fought local campaign I can remember. The same message comes back from other candidates in key seats. We had the momentum on the ground. The Ashcroft poll for Milton Keynes South showed that early in the short campaign we had reached 74 per cent of the electorate, compared to just 43 per cent by the Conservatives. Iain McNicol and the field operations team at the Labour party deserve huge credit for focusing on the ground effort. But the superiority and energy of our ground effort was wiped out in the face of the Tories’ consistent challenge to our economic competence.
The reality is that elections are not won through hard work alone. For me, two lessons already shine through our defeat and are worth reflecting on: the economy, and the party in England.
The Scottish National party threat was a genius attack line from the Conservatives. In the last month of the campaign we counted five national direct mails from the Conservatives pushing the SNP line and talking up Labour chaos. We had nothing to blunt that attack. It came up on the doorstep and in conversations with undecided voters. The simple truth is that we lost voters to the Tories because we could not convince people we could be trusted on the economy. Our key message on the NHS was well received. The deep fear of what another five years of the Tories will mean to our NHS was shared by a big chunk of the voting public. But, in the end, it was not their main motivation for voting. My hunch would also be that many of the former Labour voters we lost to the United Kingdom Independence party also voted Conservative in the end scared into it by a well-honed and disciplined Tory attack message. It is the economy, stupid, and we forget it at our peril.
The results also reveal a deeper problem Labour has in England, particularly in the southern parts of the country. Despite adding some red dots to the map, we actually lost seats in the south. The Tories’ attacks on our economic credibility fed into a broader cultural argument about whether Labour gets people’s lives in England. We had good policies that would have helped boost living standards and to spread economic prosperity. But we failed to address the sense of anxiety and insecurity many people feel. On aspiration, we sounded like we were bashing success too much. On hard work, we focused on those struggling the most, not those keeping their heads just above the line. The Conservatives exploited this anxiety; Ukip tapped into it. Milton Keynes is a successful new town, but we did not have a unifying message for those doing well and those wanting to succeed. The Conservatives painted us as the party of the have-nots; Ukip spoke to people concerned about the pace of change in the workplace and society. Ukip hit Labour harder in Milton Keynes than it did the Conservatives. Our messages simply did not resonate with many traditional working-class voters worried about globalisation, immigration and the loss of traditional jobs over the last 25 years. It is a pattern reflected in other key seats but largely overlooked by the party in our campaign.
The road to 2020 is going to be difficult. Despite the Tories’ deficiencies we have got to learn to how to reconnect with the ambitions of the British people and respond to a fast-changing world. I would urge leadership contenders and shadow cabinet members to get out of London and speak to our disillusioned voters across England, as well as in Wales and Scotland. Labour’s future success lies in the suburbs and middle-sized towns like Milton Keynes. It lies with understanding how we can win in local government in many parts of England, but not be trusted for the country. It is about how we can apply our values to a changing world both at home and abroad. While everyone is focused on who becomes leader, it is about what our party stands for, and who we speak up for, not just who is top of the ticket.
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Andrew Pakes is former parliamentary candidate for Milton Keynes South
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