The next federal election in Canada takes place on 19 October – and it is pretty difficult to tell what will happen. The three major parties are running neck and neck in the public opinion polls – the Conservatives, the New Democratic party and the Liberal party. In addition, the Quebec separatist party, the Bloc Québécois, which was almost dead, has just had its previous leader return to lead it.
The Conservatives claim to be the best on economic policy and on security and counterterrorism. The Liberals, who were strong on these issues till they lost in 2006, have allowed the Conservatives to claim the mantle even though much of the current economic success is due to Liberal-era policies.
The Liberals have a new leader, Justin Trudeau, who is doing well on the national scene and is seen as a new-style leader. He is beginning to lay out policy positions, but needs to do more.
The NDP with Tom Mulcair had been stalled in third place for three years, but has gained in the polls lately in part because the always-conservative province Alberta suddenly switched to the NDP in May, giving the national brand a boost – even though the Alberta NDP kept Mulcair far from its turf during the provincial election.
And then there is the Green party headed by the popular Elizabeth May, who won the first federal Green seat in 2011. Many progressives feel comfortable parking their vote with the Greens as the new party that does things differently. But it does take away from the Liberals and NDP in key ridings (constituencies), allowing the Tories to slide up the middle.
On the issues, the economy is doing well for some, while inequality and income disparity increase. All parties are interested in ‘the middle class’ – who in Canada are the broad swath of everyone except for the very rich and very poor, and are very concerned about the economy and the next generation.
The Tories are big on security and fighting terrorism and are happy to throw around labels like ‘jihadis’ and ‘extremists’ quite freely. Indeed, it is fair to say that Stephen Harper is the world’s strongest George Bush disciple.
The Tories rate low on the environment, the status of Aboriginal people, poverty, democracy, accountability and openness in government. All the other parties rate well on
these issues which are important to some 60 per cent of the population.
So – the next election will come down to Harper versus the party best able to remove Harper, which will be the Liberals or the NDP; one will go up, and one down. The Bloc Québécois and the Greens complicate this and could help the Tories by default. The Bloc will take back some of the nationalist (soft separatist) vote that went to the NDP in the last election. If we have a hung parliament (though that term is not used here), a coalition is unlikely but possible – more likely is a governing accord with the leading anti-Harper party in government.
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Andrew Cardozo is president of the Pearson Centre for Progressive Policy
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