Being a member of the Labour party can feel a bit like round after round of self-flagellation at the moment. But spare a thought for us Scots. Not for us the luxury of five years for a full rethink and rebuild. The Scottish National Party juggernaut rolls on and the next elections to the Scottish Parliament are just 9 months away. The polls are not pointing to a good result, and, whoever our new Scottish leader is, they must not be swept aside on the 6 May. The rebuilding of Scottish Labour is now a long-term project and they should be given time to complete it.

But just when you thought it could not get any worse, the spectre of a second independence referendum raises its ugly head. It seems inconceivable that the SNP would put this to the people again, so quickly after such a decisive result just last year. But two things make it a real possibility. First, the general election results mean many in the SNP feel they have a fresh mandate for another referendum. Second, they have a huge influx of new members (be careful what you wish for) who joined off the back of the result. People who, many having voted for the first time ever, felt both invigorated by the campaign and bitterly disappointed that they did not get the result they wanted. These new members want a second referendum and they want it now. At the very least, they want to know it is going to happen; some of them are already ripping up their party cards in disgust that it is not getting enough prominence within the party.

Nicola Sturgeon has to juggle the pressures from a new, demanding membership, without looking like a party obsessed with independence above all else, especially when the criticism of the SNP’s running of schools and hospitals is not going anywhere fast. Her immediate priority is winning a majority again next May. Furthermore, she cannot risk losing a second referendum, because that really would be the final nail in the coffin for independence. A third one in quick succession will not wash.

The timing of the Scottish parliament election cycle means that Sturgeon could potentially stand on a platform with no referendum commitment next year, intending to put it in the SNP’s manifesto for the following Holyrood elections, potentially just three years later to avoid a clash with the 2020 general election.

And, there is also a debate to be had about whether they go for a referendum on full independence again, with some people arguing it might be a smart move to ask for permission to negotiate the details with the UK government first, with the final settlement put to the people for approval or rejection.

But what if we do face another referendum in the near future? The Scottish Labour party was in dire straits in the run-up to the last one. We could, potentially be in a better place on some measures, with a reinvigorated staff and fresh leadership. However, with the defeat of all but one of our members of parliament this year, we lost an enormous chunk of our infrastructure, and in large parts of the country, there will simply be noone able or willing to lead a local campaign. Believe me, it was hard enough the first time round.

To stop rows about what role the Scottish Labour party should play in a second referendum the new leader should think hard about putting this question to the membership. I have no doubt that the vast majority of our members want us to campaign against independence, but in a much weaker party, debating this question for the second time round, it will be important to have a settled view, which members feel has been considered carefully and taken democratically.

As one of my former colleagues has said, if the price we paid for keeping the country together last year was wipeout in the general election this year, then it was worth it. But it will be harder second time round. In this context, and looking at the polls and likely outcome next May, the make-up of our regional lists is more important than ever. A bun fight between sitting list and constituency members of the Scottish parliament, and our new constituency candidates will not cut it. Yes, we need to think about who is at the top of the lists to maximise the vote, just as Donald Dewar was top of the Glasgow list in 1999. But, with a heavy heart, the next consideration needs to be, who will be left on the 6 May next year? That team needs to have enough breadth, depth, energy and ideas to fight the next referendum. Getting our list strategy right is going to be one of the first big tests of the new leader. It is absolutely vital that they get it right, otherwise our woes are only going to get worse.

The prospect of a second referendum fills most of us with dread. We did not enjoy it the first time, it was a distraction from fighting the Tories, from making sure the Labour party was in shape to fight the general election. It pitched neighbours and family members against each other and poisoned Scottish political discourse. But the nationalists only have to win once, we have to keep winning again and again to keep our country together and to best serve the people we seek to represent. So we will have to be ready for the fight, if and when it comes, and however tough it seems.

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Gemma Doyle is former member of parliament for West Dunbartonshire. She tweets @gemmacdoyle

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Photo: Progress