The Social Democratic party faced a bitter moment of truth in Finland’s April 2015 elections. After four turbulent years as a junior partner in a coalition government the SDP attracted an all-time low of 16.5 per cent of the vote, ranking only fourth among the parties.
The elections also produced a new deal in the political landscape: the populist Finns party became the second largest group in the parliament and joined forces with the Centre and the Conservatives in a new government.
It was a question of credibility, both for the Finns party as well as for Finland’s political system and representative democracy. Four years earlier the populists had declined offers to take on governing responsibility, first and foremost because of Finnish commitments to the eurozone bailout programmes. This time Greek crisis could not justify another period in opposition.
The Finns party’s transformation from an anti-elite protest movement to the managers of state affairs has not been a smooth one. The past six months has been a rough ride for the whole centre-right government, but especially so for its newcomers. The Finns party has learned the hard way that in realpolitik there are no easy answers to their darling questions.
First, they had to accept the third bailout package for Greece. Finland put up a tough face in the July negotiations, but in the end bowed to the general (German-led) line as before. Thus, all the Finnish parties have now in one phase or another backed decisions that keep the eurozone going, the Finns party included.
The current state of the Finnish economy is poor and its prospects even poorer in many ways. It was clear already before the elections that there were budget cuts and austerity measures in waiting. Still, the government has adopted much harsher line than expected, pushing especially labour market reforms in a way that clearly take employers’ side against wage-earners and trade union interests.
These policies may suit well the ideological and pragmatic aims of the Conservatives, a bit more ambivalently so the Centre whose leader Juha Sipilä is adapting his former business skills to his present post of prime minister. But the social base of the Finns party is quite working class. They were presumed to present labour’s views in the otherwise very bourgeois government.
The third challenge stems from the current waves of migration. The Finns party promised to reduce public spending on immigrants (implicitly also their number), but under this government more foreigners are entering Finland than ever before. Even if the crisis demonstrates an all-European failure, the populists are not delivering what their supporters voted for.
The political consequences are hardly surprising. While in the government the Centre and the Conservatives have held their electorates pretty well, the Finns party’s has shrunk almost to half as the polls give them now only 10 per cent support. These are their lowest figures for over five years.
It remains to be seen whether the Paris terrorist attacks will affect this declining trend. In his role of the foreign minister the populist leader Timo Soini receives a lot of media attention but he is unlikely to play party politics with the tragedy. Such efforts could easily backfire as the Finns are all united in mourning together with the rest of Europe.
The opposition parties naturally gain from the government’s struggles. After years of declining support, internal turmoil and identity crisis the Social Democrats are finally finding some self-confidence that also seems to appeal to the public. In the polls they have enjoyed a rare surge of over six points in just two months.
With its current 20.7 percent support the SDP is already breathing down the Centre’s neck for pole position. Also the Greens are doing well with 12 per cent, thus passing their arch-rival, the Finns party.
The SDP appears to be winning back some of those (male labour) voters who were temporarily lost to the populists. At the same time government’s plans threaten public sector services that employ a lot of women, often on low pay. Also they are placing their trust in social democracy that plays a dominant role in the still very influential trade unions.
The tensions between the three parties in power have been rising, but the SDP would be foolish to count on any short-term windows of opportunities. On the contrary the Social Democrats should spend their time in opposition patiently and develop solid basis and policies on which they can capitalise when the time comes.
Four years to the next general elections is a long way to go.
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Mikko Majander is an adjunct professor of political history at the University of Helsinki and the director of thinktank Kalevi Sorsa Foundation
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