The referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union looks set to dominate the politics of 2016, offering voters a choice between two clear and competing options for their country’s future.

For such a big decision, however, there is at present a remarkably low degree of public engagement. Most people do not yet know for sure which way they will vote in the referendum. We should expect the polls to veer quite drastically one way and another over the coming months as we edge closer to a referendum that remains wide open.

That is, as British Future highlights today in a new pamphlet How (not) to talk about Europe, because the rival ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ campaigns continue to struggle to engage those beyond their own tribe of fervent supporters.

The early moves from both campaigns suggest that many of those involved understand they will need to reach out to a much broader audience in order to persuade a majority to back their cause. But both the ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ campaigns will face a tricky task as they seek to mobilise their support and begin to build the broader campaigns they need. The winning campaign could well be whichever side does most to disrupt expectations, surprising people with its ability to broaden its appeal. That means both campaigns may need to surprise their supporters too – or at least take them on a journey about how to win the argument with those not already onside.

Otherwise, if and when they get their pitch to the public right, the campaigners might risk a chorus of complaint from their most active supporters, those who would find a narrower pitch more compelling.

This challenge for both ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ with their current base of support is increased because a referendum campaign is not like a general election. The official ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ campaigns will only be part of a broader national argument about the EU. There will be much less command-and-control message discipline of members of parliament and party candidates than is true in a party campaign, where political careers often depend on not upsetting their party leaders. Both sides will need to be part of a wider network of support, including those with different political and economic views – provided that their allies are helping to build support, rather than to inadvertently lose it.

These campaigns cannot control their supporters; so they will instead have to influence them about how to make the case in a way that is helpful. In doing so, they may need to be unusually transparent about what they are doing and why. Instead of the old political model of keeping the secrets of the campaign strategy to themselves, so as to mount surprise attacks on the opposition, a successful campaign for either side may fare better by engaging in a more open conversation with their own supporters, about how the case needs to be pursued in order to secure the support of a majority of the public.

Both ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ have a long way to go before they can persuade the undecided voters who will determine the referendum result. The successful campaign will be one that moves beyond talking to people who are already onside and surprises voters with an approach that reaches far wider. Doing so while taking their supporters along too may be a challenge, but it is one that they will need to meet if they are serious about getting over the 50 per cent winning line in the referendum.

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Steve Ballinger is director of communications for British Future, an independent and non-partisan thinktank, and co-author of their new pamphlet published today, How (not) to talk about Europe