With the European Union referendum on 23 June fast approaching, today’s migration statistics will cause more headaches for the government.
First, the good news for David Cameron. The latest figures show net migration fell. Cameron’s problem is it was by the smallest of numerical hairs – down 13,000 to 323,000 from its high of 336,000 in June. This not much at all, but given the politically charged nature of immigration any reduction will be welcomed with open arms. Beyond this headline, the current picture makes for uncomfortable reading in 10 Downing Street. More like fifty shades of grey clouds ahead without a clear story line.
The government’s net migration target looks at the difference between the numbers entering and leaving the country. In a nutshell, more are coming than going. In the year ending September 2015, there was a slight rise in the number of people immigrating to the United Kingdom – this rose 2000 to 617,000. So far, so familiar.
But fewer people in the UK are choosing to leave. Only 294,000 left the country – a drop of 29,000.
The main issue here is the government is out of ideas and quickly running out of steam. Voters were promised significant reductions in net migration – and yet numbers remain at record highs.
The government has rolled out a patchwork quilt of different policies aimed at driving numbers down. Since becoming prime minister, Cameron has overseen the introduction of more difficult English language tests, a UK citizenship test which even few British citizens can pass, new health surcharges of up to £200 per year, and high income thresholds for bringing a spouse or family member to Britain. Application fees are also set to rise by as much as 25 per cent from April.
The only purpose these disparate – or should I say desperate – policies have in common is they are making life ever more difficult for anyone wanting to live or settle in Britain from abroad. In fact, Cameron’s immigration strategy can be summed up in one word – less. But what he delivers is more or the same.
There is a cost to be paid for this shambles. But do not expect to see much sympathy for them. I have in mind not migrants, but British citizens, as an increasing number are becoming directly affected.
Britain’s immigration rules may not work at the national level bringing down net migration. Yet they are very successful at making hard working Brits overseas miserable. By raising the hurdles on who can settle in Britain, the rules prevent many British citizens from bringing their wives, husbands and children back to the UK with them.
But maybe that is the government’s solution. If more people left or stopped coming to Britain, then we could see bigger falls in net migration.
One statistic you will not find much discussion about is 14 per cent of the 617,000 people immigrating into the UK were British citizens. That is about 86,000 people. If more British citizens living abroad are kept out, Cameron could get much closer to a 100,000 net migration cut. If the government cannot find enough ways to make living in the UK less attractive for EU and non-EU citizens, then maybe Cameron’s secret strategy is to make the UK less appealing to Brits living abroad. The way things are shaping up this might be the best explanation yet of Cameron’s continuing failure.
———————————-
Thom Brooks is professor of law and government at Durham university. His book ‘Becoming British: UK Citizenship Examined’ is published next month
———————————-