While I hesitate to draw on the insights of a former Conservative leader, it seems appropriate when they show up the weakness in the argument of another.
When Iain Duncan Smith underpinned his Brexit case on Andrew Marr with an appeal to optimism and British pride I was reminded of an insight shared by John Major. Major had been at Yale speaking on international relations. During the questions and answers an audience member spoke of his dismay at the absence of any modern day equivalents of the great statesmen of old. He reminisced about a time when these men circled the world in power, shaping events, determining deals, facing down challenge and opposition.
Major responded by pointing out the world had changed. Countries were interdependent, relationships complex and unpredictability was the norm. In our modern world, the old kind of statecraft was no longer appropriate.
Brexit Tories and their friends are today where that audience member was then, wanting the world to work in the way they wish it did rather than as it does. The world they want is one that sees the United Kingdom as indispensable. They believe that by withdrawing from Europe we will position ourselves to leverage that indispensability on the world stage while maintaining free access to the world’s largest market at reduced financial and political cost.
But in the world as it is the UKs indispensability is not unqualified. We are important but we are interdependent and our strength depends on the strength of our European Union neighbours. Withdrawal would not only hurt them, it would undermine us. In the world as it is, our major opportunities and challenges arise not only in the form of rival states, but also supranational corporations, footloose finance, economic forces, people movements and drivers of climate change that sit beyond any single government’s ability to control. This is a world in which we need alliances if any of us are going to keep up with world wide competition and meet the challenges to democracy and planet we are facing.
This is not, as Duncan Smith suggested, a pessimism that argues against the competence of the British public. It is simply an acknowledgement that the world of which we are a part is not what it was and requires a new kind of statecraft.
In 2014 the Guardian public leaders summit asked senior public sector staff what they anticipated would be their key challenges over the next 12 months. Engaging with the EU came last with only 7 per cent of respondents even mentioning it. Yet today, as the Labour candidate hoping to become Bristol’s next elected mayor, with a commitment to a thriving democracy, strong economy, good quality jobs and climate justice, the prospects of a Brexit casts a dark shadow over the future.
Alan Johnson was in the west of England last week visiting Airbus who employ 4,000 people at its facility in Filton. He pointed out that industries like Airbus need collaboration across the European market both for the development of technology and sales. A 2014 report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research found over 360,000 jobs in the South West are linked to exports to EU countries. The warning was credible and clear – leaving Europe would threaten our economic strength.
The EU is an important ally in supporting mayors who stand up for their populations against bad government policy. Of course we will work with other city leaders. But the provisions of the social charter from maternity leave, to equal pay, to holidays, to consultation on redundancies are critical when central government is not doing the job we need. This is not red tape. It is how we can ensure our cities are not thrown into a race to the bottom.
City leaders need Europe to work with us on the causes and consequences of climate change. This means working throughout Europe to ensure we are not unduly disadvantaged as we take action to cut emissions. It also means taking collective action to deal with the consequences of climate change from flooding to climate driven migration.
If elected I, like other city leaders, will be asking central government to devolve financial and decision making powers. This will free us up to flourish and drive national prosperity. My fear is that a Brexit will curb central government’s appetite for devolution. Casting the UK off into isolation and uncertainty will drive government to tighten their grip on cities, leaving less to chance. This will hamper cities and dampen the contribution they could otherwise have been making to national prosperity.
The EU is not perfect. There are legitimate concerns over the distance between people and decision makers. We have had financial scandal, opaqueness and bureaucratic quagmires. But as with any system it must be made to work for us. Cities need the freedom and opportunity to be inside Europe to ensure it does.
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Marvin Rees is Labour’s candidate for Bristol mayor