The idea of a universal basic income is not without merit and Christabel Edwards argues the case well as do others most notably the RSA who have been strongly advocating for the concept over last year.

However, I would argue that three key questions need to be answered before Labour commits to taking such a large gamble with a critical policy area. They are are: is a universal basic income really needed? How would it work in practice? And should John McDonnell, who has said he is looking carefully at the idea, be serious about its inclusion in Labour’s 2020 manifesto?

On the first question, there have long been forerunners of this idea, but most recently it has emerged as a reaction to the fear that jobs are set to become more automated and shrink in number, and that therefore people will need economic protection from that.

Looking back to Harold Wilson’s white heat of the technological revolution speech, the jobs market has changed irrevocably since 1963. And as someone who grew up in a coal mining village I know that first hand. But the United Kingdom with its dominant services sector is well placed to be less impacted by automation. And the reality is that there is much more to do about securing better pay and working conditions which require different policy solutions and persistence to put them into practice. A universal basic income can appear an easy solution to a complex set of issues.

On the second question of how it would work I have real concerns on the practicality of how it could be implemented. At what level should it be set and realistically how would it be funded? These are questions without obvious answers. This would be a huge change and you only have to look at how the Department of Work and Pensions has managed the universal credit roll out to have concerns about how this would land.

As for the third and arguably most important question, I believe that its inclusion in the manifesto would simply be electoral suicide on the scale of 1983.

A report from Oxford University last month – ‘Why did Labour fail to perform better in the 2015 general election?’ – says it clearest: Labour’s perceived fiscal extravagance did matter.

For all his (many) faults as chancellor George Osborne has been a brilliant political strategist and tagging the worldwide economic crash as Labour’s fault rather than the bankers has stuck in the public’s perception of us. And we could have countered that much better in 2010-15. But we didn’t, so we are where we are, and sadly we have an economic credibility problem.

Whatever the academics say about the benefits of universal basic income, whoever is in Downing Street in April 2020 is going to have a field day with too-easy argument of Labour profligacy. A universal payment will also too easily intersect with Labour’s achilles heel on immigration. And political argument aside, the proposal also risks rupturing the implicit social contract. What will citizens feel about a policy which confirms in broad daylight – that people get money for doing nothing – what they already feel happens behind closed doors?

The UK is in desperate need of a Labour government in 2020 to help those suffering under Cameron and Osborne’s ideological assault on them. Ultimately if universal basic Income is in the 2020 Labour manifesto I believe that would lessen our chances of winning and therefore being able to help those that need us. Labour are lacking big ideas, and we should be bold, but I’d say Liz Kendall’s work on early years or Andy Burnham’s on integration of health and social care would be a much better start. We must revisit these ideas, and others, rather than declare UBI and risk a terrible fallout.

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Glen Mitchell is a member of Progress. He tweets @GlenMitchell1

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