The murder of Jo Cox has formed a dark shadow over an already desperately squalid referendum campaign. National referendums only come about once in a generation and, on the evidence of the past few months, thank goodness and good riddance. The hyperbolic language, fear and loathing, the nostalgia, scaremongering and the endless Tory psychodrama coupled with Labour’s diffidence have scarred the UK political landscape. Regardless of the outcome on Thursday, reconciliation not rancour needs to be the order of the day. It is only right that parliament has come together in a show of national unity, but now the tributes are over, the reality of the referendum in just two days’ time has already come back to the fore.

One observation is clear from this referendum, though: Nigel Farage is a boil on the British body politic that needs lancing. Even before the death of Jo Cox last Thursday, Farage had stood in front of a poster which, if it had been viewed in black and white, could conceivably have come out of the 1930s. His toxic mix of nationalism, isolationism and, at best, outright bigotry has appalled many but clearly has a constituency within politics. Immigration was long the Vote Leave’s trump card. If you are losing an argument, change the subject. That was clearly Vote Leave’s strategy when it switched from competing on the economics, to focusing solely on the immigration in the past few weeks. The problem for the Leave campaign is that such a strategy has a ceiling. Much like when the Labour party returns to its ideological redoubt of defending the NHS – it is preaching to the converted. Immigration was always going to mobilise those who already viewed it as the primary problem of our membership of the European Union.

The second observation is that the economic impact of Brexit is beginning to gain salience over immigration once again. Still, having not featured highly in last year’s general election, immigration is the dog that is now finally barking. Jeremy Corbyn rose to become Labour leader on a promise of returning Labour to its roots. But his stark message that there is no limit to inward migration to the UK underscores the deep rift that the EU poll was always going to widen. The potential political ramifications are disastrous for Labour; unable to marshal its once stronghold of Scotland, Ukip-inclined voters are now firmly implanted in vast swaths of its northern seats. They simply have not listened to the Labour leadership during the course of this campaign.

Corbyn has never dispelled the impression that he is, at very best, a half-hearted supporter of our continued membership of the EU. Given that it is highly probable the result of the referendum will be decided by Labour voters, Labour’s voice is going to be critical, quite possibly decisive, in the next few days. There is no victory for Remain that excludes the Labour vote.

Concerns over immigration are not a fringe issue, or a rightwing issue. But fears of it have clearly been incited, with Farage the appalling chief antagonist. Mainstream campaigners on both sides are acutely aware of the need, nigh on necessity, to conduct the last few days of the referendum with some dignity. The tragic events of last week demand it.

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David Talbot is a political consultant. He tweets @_davetalbot

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