Well, if that was his version of a dramatic flourish, it is probably just as well that Philip Hammond concluded his first autumn statement by promising to abolish them in future.
That the rescheduling of parliamentary budget statements was the gimmick of the day highlights the break in approach with this predecessor. ‘Spreadsheet Phil’ made it clear that he is cut from different cloth than gimmicky George Osborne.
In truth, it was pretty thin gruel – uninspiring, lacking vision and direction. One almost missed the diversion of Osborne’s politicking.
However, Hammond sounded much more like Osborne in one respect. Announcing the forecasts of the Office for Budget Responsibility for the public finances, he made it clear that the government’s target for surplus has been kicked down the road – again.
We now have to wait until some unspecified time in the next parliament for the budget surplus promised at the election. Fortunately, he remembered to rewrite Osborne’s fiscal rules so he could produce a scorecard with ticks, not crosses.
Shadow chancellor John McDonnell was well justified arguing in his response that the Tories’ much-vaunted long-term economic plan had clearly failed. When even rightwing clickbait merchants like Guido talk about the Tories’ ‘decade of fiscal irresponsibility’, you know the last rites over the much-vaunted long term economic plan truly have been read.
The chancellor made a big deal out of singling out a grant to save a stately home said to be the model for Jane Austen’s Pride and Prejudice. Which was as well, as the rest of the statement reminded one more of Bleak House. The OBR forecasts certainly painted a grim picture. Growth down, a Brexit black hole of £122bn and national debt climbing to 90.2 per cent of GDP in 2017-18 – by the end of the parliament it will be nearly £2 trillion.
Hammond’s passion, apparently, is productivity. Closing the seemingly intractable productivity gap is a noble – if unoriginal – aim, so this focus is welcome, as is the concept of a productivity investment fund. But it is not really a fund, many of the projects listed yesterday are rehashes of previous announcements, and in the grand scheme of things £23bn will not really shift the dial. And while new hard infrastructure is welcome, where is the investment on vocational skills and training? There is more to boosting productivity than donning a hi-vis vest.
Indeed, this autumn statement is more notable for what it does not say than what it does. Incredibly, given the audacious claim the prime minister made for the Tories to be the real protectors of the National Health Service in her conference speech, there was not a single mention of the health service in Hammond’s 6,000 word Commons statement or the 72-page statement itself.
The same is true of mental health, public health and – worse of all – social care; which faces a crisis of such magnitude, it is hard to fathom how it could have been ignored. The social care crisis is undoubtedly one of the many pressures felt by the so-called JAMs – those ‘just about managing’ – so beloved of Number 10. Yet the statement delivered little else for them.
Hammond raised the government’s fake living wage to £7.50 by April 2017 – less than expected earlier this year and still a way off the rate calculated by the Living Wage Foundation which actually meets the cost of living. His big welfare give away is a reduction in the universal credit taper rate from 65 per cent to 63 per cent – a welcome relaxation, but there is a reason why it does not sound that impressive, especially as the work allowance and restriction to two children stays.
And, as the OBR pointed out, thanks to the fall in the pound pushing up import prices, inflation will wipe out almost all pay rises next year. Wages are currently rising by around 2.4 per cent per year; and the OBR expects inflation to hit 2.7 per cent in 2017. What is more, the Resolution Foundation think that this effect will mean workers will take home £830 a year less than expected in 2020-21. So, the JAMs will not even get jam tomorrow.
This autumn statement failed to provide any real help for those who really need it. It failed to say anything meaningful on affordable housing and anything at all or the social care crisis. It underlined the failure of the Tories’central mission – balancing the books, in both 2010 and 2015 – now a busted flush. No wonder the chancellor decided to scrap it.
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Mike Katz is national vice-chair of the Jewish Labour movement and a former list candidate for the London assembly. He tweets at @mikekatz
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It’s good to see that we have moved on from the Tory-lite New Labour years. No more will we promise “to be tougher on welfare than the Tories” or claim that “we don’t represent the unemployed”. It’s such a shame that we went into 2015 promising a lower minimum wage than the proper Tories. No wonder we lost!
Let’s all get behind Jeremy and provide a real socialist Opposition!