The lows of 2016 will continue if the centre-left does not recognise that history can be shaped
In the long sweep of history, there are certain years which punctuate time’s journey, like speed bumps. When Sir Edward Grey looked out of his window at the Foreign Office in August 1914 and remarked that the lights were going out across Europe, he instinctively described a year which marked the end of empires and the birth of modernity. 1945 heralded a new settlement in Europe, and the short-lived triumph of social democracy. When the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, 70 years of communism crumbled to dust, and we were told it was the end of history.
It is clear, even before it has ended, that 2016 is one of those years which represents something more than another page in the almanac. For most people, it will be remembered as the year when so many famous people were taken: David Bowie, Alan Rickman, Terry Wogan, Harper Lee, George Martin, Ronnie Corbett, Victoria Wood, Prince, Muhammed Ali, Gene Wilder, Pete Burns, Leonard Cohen, Robert Vaughn and many other celebrities who have shaped our shared culture and made our collective memories.
There is a plausible argument about why it feels that so many famous people are dying. It rests on the idea that modern celebrity culture was born in the 1950s and 1960s, and so there are many more celebrities coming to the end of their lives than 20 years ago. It does not make it any easier, or any less cruel.
For those involved in progressive politics, 2016 represents something more significant. It feels like a genuine annus horribilis because of the scale and depth of our reversals and defeats. The vote to leave the European Union was not only a horrible, avoidable shock, it also opens the door to years of division and distraction. We can only speculate how much time and effort will be expended, at the expense of fixing real issues such as homelessness or youth unemployment, over the next decade. Brexit will suck the oxygen out of our national life for a decade.
Obviously, the situation in the United Kingdom is perilous. The flame of centre-left progressivism within Labour is guttering. But the situation for the ascendant hard left is no less dangerous. Their guy, their politics and their people lead Labour. With his re‑election in 2016, Jeremy Corbyn has the best opportunity in 100 years for his brand of politics. If his project fails, which seems very likely, there will be nowhere to hide.
In the US, Donald Trump’s victory has sparked a crisis amongst progressives. There follows the usual period of soul-searching, recrimination and blame. Some will draw the wrong conclusion that Bernie Sanders might have won with a more leftwing campaign than Hillary Clinton’s. Others will demand that fire be fought with fire, and seek a celebrity candidate with an even bigger popular reach than the presenter of the Apprentice. Either way, it will take years for the dust to settle.
Around the world, socialist and social democratic parties are in decline and in the doldrums. In Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Greece, Ireland, Israel, New Zealand and Spain our sister parties are in opposition. There are few, if any, beacons of actually existing social democracy around the world to provide us with hope. We have travelled far from the Third Way.
As autumn turns to winter, there are serious, difficult questions we must ask. Is 2016 the year progressive politics died? Has history ended, not in the triumph of liberal democracy, but in the ascendancy of populism, demagoguery and dictatorship? Has the Enlightenment run its course?
The answer, of course, is no. Clinton won more votes than any presidential candidate in American history, bar one. In Canada, Justin Trudeau is fashioning a popular centre-ground radicalism. Millions of people every day show their common humanity through myriad acts of kindness and altruism. Even the terrible, dark day when Jo Cox was murdered spurred tens of thousands of us to donate to her charity and rally for her beliefs. 2016 represents a historic low-point for progressives, but it need not be the death knell for the things we hold dear.
History is made up of human activity; it can be shaped. The choices we make now will determine what happens next. If progressives give up and walk away, then naturally we will be defeated. As the historian EH Carr pointed out, stuff happens for a reason. The great lesson from our own political history is that we can be masters of our fate.
When the Queen described 1992 as her annus horribilis, she referred to her own family’s travails, what with all the fires, divorces and suchlike. But 1992 was a horrible year for Labour too. Defeat in the election that year, after 13 years in opposition was a terrible shock for Labour. Yet just five years later, Labour won a landslide. That is because a small group of modernisers decided to stop losing and start winning. Small groups of people can change the world. Indeed, they are the only thing that ever has. The lights may be going out, but in the darkness the flame of hope still burns.
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“1945 heralded a new settlement in Europe, and the short-lived triumph of social democracy.”
Very short lived. By 2012, Tory-lite Rachel Reeves was insisting that New Labour would be “tougher on welfare than the Tories” and that Labour “does not represent the unemployed”.
New Labour are finished. Yesterday’s people. Let’s get behind Jeremy for real social democracy!
The American Democratic Party has been defeated in the person of the most economically neoliberal and internationally neoconservative nominee imaginable. From the victory of Donald Trump, to the Durham Teaching Assistants’ dispute, the lesson needs to be learned. The workers are not the easily ignored and routinely betrayed base, with the liberal bourgeoisie as the swing voters to whom tribute must be paid. The reality is the other way round. The EU referendum ought already to have placed that beyond doubt.
There is a need to move, as a matter of the utmost urgency, away from the excessive focus on identity issues, and towards the recognition that those existed only within the overarching and undergirding context of the struggle against economic inequality and in favour of international peace, including co-operation with Russia, not a new Cold War.
It is worth noting that working-class white areas that voted for Barack Obama did not vote for Hillary Clinton, that African-American turnout went down while the Republican share of that vote did not, and that Trump took 30 per cent of the Hispanic vote. Black Lives Matter meant remembering Libya, while Latino Lives Matter meant remembering Honduras.
The defeat of the Clintons by a purported opponent of neoliberal economic policy and of neoconservative foreign policy, although time will tell, has secured the position of Jeremy Corbyn, who is undoubtedly such an opponent. It is also a challenge to Theresa May, to make good her rhetoric about One Nation, about a country that works for everyone, and about being a voice for working people.
But fake news is of very real concern.
There have been seven recessions in the United Kingdom since the Second World War. Five of them have been under Conservative Governments. That party has also presided over all four separate periods of Quarter on Quarter fall in growth during the 2010s. By contrast, there was no recession on the day of the 2010 General Election. And now, the Conservatives have more than doubled the National Debt. The Major Government also doubled the National Debt. Yet the Conservatives’ undeserved reputation for economic competence endures. They are subjected to absolutely no scrutiny by the fake news detractors of their opponents.
Other examples of fake news include the official versions of events in relation to Orgreave, Westland, and Hillsborough. All manner of claims made by, or in support of, the Clintons. The alleged murder of 100,000 military age males in Kosovo. The existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, and their capacity for deployment within 45 minutes. Saddam Hussein’s feeding of people into a giant paper shredder, and his attempt to obtain uranium from Niger. An imminent genocide in Benghazi, Gaddafi’s feeding of Viagra to his soldiers in order to encourage mass rape, and his intention to flee to Venezuela. An Iranian nuclear weapons programme. And Assad’s gassing of Ghouta, as if that were an undisputed fact.
In every case, that was fake news. Or, in plain English, lies.
What a load of empty rhetoric. Progress really has run out of steam if this is the best they can do. It is whistling in the dark to keep their spirits up. It no longer seeks to connect with the wider party but speaks to itself.