The European Union 27 are more likely to be be looking fearfully towards Russia than sadly towards Britain, writes Dina Pardijs
Following the British debate on Brexit could give one the impression that the negotiations on a European Union deal are between different parts of the British government, which just needs to decide internally what they want to give the desperate Europeans. The issues in play are the single market and migration, and not much else. But when the European Council on Foreign Relations did a wide-ranging survey about about Brexit concerns in all EU member states, a different picture emerged.
In September 2016, in the post-Brexit vote, pre-Trump vote period, ECFR decided to gauge the mood in Europe. Our associate researchers got responses from 77 government and opposition parties in each EU member state, mostly through direct interviews with representatives. We asked questions about specific policy conundrums on countries like China and Libya, but also about their reactions on Brexit. Most parties agreed that Britain’s departure from the EU was a serious problem for them, and almost 78 percent said it threatened the future of the European project.
The broadest concern mentioned was a diminished standing of the EU on the global stage. Linked to that were fears for a splintering of the EU, through a domino effect of countries leaving the EU or demanding their own special deal, and a weakening of the transatlantic relationship. Our map with a summary of the main concerns per country also shows some interesting commonalities between regions. In some of the southern member states, as well as some of the newer member states such as Bulgaria and Croatia, a fragmentation of the EU due the increasing movements of nationalism and populism is top on the list.
And towards the East, two words kept coming back: ‘Russia’ and ‘security’. The emphasis of some of the countries on central Europe on defence against their neighbour has long been known. During the renegotiation process, our researchers found that in countries like Estonia and Latvia, the United Kingdom was seen as an important guarantor of security against Russia. At the time, some countries were willing to be quite flexible in negotiations to keep this guarantee. Most EU countries are also Nato members, but as former Nato chiefs warned in an intervention before the Brexit vote, Britain leaving the EU could also have adverse effect on this organisation. In 2016, Latvia and Lithuania topped the list Nato members in terms of an increase in defence spending, with 42 and 31 percent respectively compared to the year before.
When asked about opportunities after Brexit, a new impetus for investment in EU security cooperation was mentioned by 22 parties. Some hope that Germany, skittish around the topic of militarisation since the second world war, will be more open to an ambitious conversation about defence. Others are glad that the UK will no longer be there to block ambitious projects, specifically around more military collaboration between member states.
Brexiteers are right to say that EU27 are concerned about Brexit, but they might want to look at the bigger picture before starting the negotiations. Equally, Britain’s pro-European politicians can expand the horizons of the UK debate by drawing on research like this. What this map of views shows is that their EU counterparts are more likely to be looking fearfully east, towards Russia, than gazing sadly west, towards Britain.
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Dina Pardijs is programme coordinator for European power at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She tweets at @PardijsDJ
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