Ed Miliband suffered unlikely losses to the Tories in 2015, but could there be more to come under Jeremy Corbyn, asks Chris Terry

The Conservative party has begun the process of selecting candidates for the next general election. Forty-four seats closed for applications from candidates on 20 February 2017. What is perhaps most surprising is that they are all concentrated in the urban north.

Traditionally selections in such seats would begin much later in the parliament, so this may imply a potential early election, or perhaps more likely, an attempt to lay the groundwork for strong attacks on these seats. It is well known among electoral campaigners that selecting early allows individual candidates to gain much more visibility and can strengthen a campaign. Ultimately, in Britain’s first past the post electoral system, it is individual constituencies that matter.

The 2015 general election demonstrated the Conservative party’s ability to micro-target, without which Britain may have received its second hung parliament in a row.

Perhaps the greatest visual demonstration of this was Gower. One of the eight seats lost under Ed Miliband to the Tories in 2015, it had been held by Labour for the preceding 105 years.

If Labour’s current polling situation were to play out at the next election the likeliest outcome is fewer seats for the party than at any point since the second world war.

That would suggest that Labour’s next election is perhaps likelier to be defensive than offensive and more Gowers may be on their way as a result. Last month’s byelection in Copeland is a prime example.

That given, which seats might be the ‘next Gower’?

To my mind there are several identifiable categories of Labour seats particularly at risk from a potential Conservative assault. It is too early to say with any confidence that these seats will fall, but they may well be ones to watch at the next election.

Ex-industrial non-metropolitan north and Midlands

Perhaps the largest category of seats at risk fall into this category.

Most of the north’s metropolitan centres are now areas of growth and promise. Urban renewal, successful universities and large populations have been able to support growing creative industries and services. This has been helped by the ‘northern powerhouse’ and ‘Midlands engine’.

But in smaller, ex-industrial cities, towns and villages a recovery has not yet come, and looks unlikely to.

White working-class voters here have often seen job losses affect both men and women and disaffection is strong. Some of the strongest ‘Leave’ votes in the United Kingdom were posted in areas such as Bolsover, Rotherham and Stoke-on-Trent.

In terms of the latter, Labour should not believe that its byelection victory renders the seat safe at the next election. Opposition parties tend to win outsized victories at byelections, yet Labour’s majority in Stoke-on-Trent Central was heavily reduced. Seats can be won only to be lost at subsequent general elections. For instance, Labour’s gain of Corby in 2012, the Liberal Democrat hold of Eastleigh in 2013, and the four Labour byelection gains between 1987 and 1992 all saw Conservative wins at the following election. This could equally apply to other Labour byelection gains in this parliament.

Many of the areas have sizeable votes for the United Kingdom Independence party and low levels of turnout. There are signs the Conservative-leaning Ukip vote is moving back, while the part taken from Labour holds steady. Increased abstention by Labour voters or gains by the Conservatives could put seats at risks.

These seats are examples of where Labour is perhaps most in danger of revolt by ‘left behind’ voters. Take Mansfield, where 30 per cent have no formal qualifications. Such voters have been key to Ukip’s vote, but may feel increasingly pulled towards the less metropolitan, more socially conservative and rhetorically more economically centrist conservativism of Theresa May.

In addition to the seats and areas I have mentioned, North East Derbyshire, Walsall North and Bishop Auckland could also be at risk in the wrong circumstances, while seats Labour must win back, such as Morley and Outwood, could prove difficult gains.

Potential Welsh surprises

Labour has won every general, local or devolved election in Wales since 1918, so there can sometimes be a sense of presumption around Labour’s position there. Yet it is worth remembering that Labour’s support has fallen from previous heights in Wales, although, unlike Scotland, a single party has not emerged to challenge it. The opposition remains splintered. At last year’s devolved elections Labour won just 34.7 and 31.5 per cent of the constituency and list votes respectively. Labour dominance in Wales is weaker than it may appear.

Additionally, Ukip has made a strong mark in Wales. The party now holds seven seats in the Welsh assembly and won more votes than Plaid Cymru in 2015. Additionally, Ukip stood candidates in all 40 Welsh constituencies and did not lose a deposit in a single one.

Like the north and Midlands, rural and small town Labour areas of Wales have experienced industrial decline, and voted to leave the European Union.

Gower would fit into this category of constituency, had it not already been lost in 2015 by the wafer thin margin of 27 votes which is now the Conservative majority. So would Vale of Clwyd, which was also a surprise Tory win under Miliband.

North-east Wales strikes me as particularly strong territory for potential Conservative gains with Alyn and Deeside, Clwyd South, Delyn and Wrexham being especially noteworthy.

Like many seats in the previous category these four seats have reasonable but not insurmountable majorities over the Conservative party and a strong third placed Ukip which the Conservatives could draw upon.

Plaid has fairly limited appeal in north-east Wales due to proximity to England meaning it is the right from which dangers to Labour most lie.

These seats also have features that tend to mark them out as likely to hold comparatively high numbers of socially conservative voters. Alyn and Deeside is 98 per cent white and has a relatively high Christian population (66 per cent), for instance.

A notable element in this seat (and with some ramifications for Labour’s electoral chances in nearby seats) is the presence of Tata Steel and the ongoing attempts to keep the factory open. The handling of this issue by governments in both Westminster and Cardiff Bay may well prove an important deciding factor in these constituencies.

Diverse but challenging

Black, Asian and minority ethnic populations have often been one of Labour’s more dependable voter groups helping to save seats like Birmingham Edgbaston in 2010, that should have been lost, or helping to make gains for Labour in seats such as Wolverhampton South West, Dewsbury and Ilford North in 2015.

However, Labour did lose a considerable number of Hindu and Sikh votes for the first time in 2015 and there are further signs that BAME voters might not be as solid for Labour as they once were. This group is also less likely to turn out than other groups.

This creates challenges in a series of seats where sizeable populations of ‘left behind’ white voters live alongside moderately sized BAME groups.

Despite a sometimes simplistic view amongst some that more diversity means more tolerance, the politics of race can sometimes be close to the surface in such seats. During the mid-2000s notable numbers of British National Party votes were recorded in West Bromwich West, Bradford South and Oldham which share this mix of BAME voters and ‘left behind’ white voters.

Labour may boast a majority of 16.2 per cent in a seat like Wolverhampton North East, but this may well be deceptive, with both the Conservatives and Ukip on around a quarter of the vote each.

However, in order to take such a seat, the Conservatives may need to balance gaining Ukip votes while achieving penetration amongst BAME communities, or at the very least not activating them to come out in force for Labour.

Bradford South, Wolverhampton North East and Coventry North West are the key seats to watch here.

Southern citadels

Finally, we come to the southern citadels. This is perhaps the most notably different of our categories and are seats where the Tories have not yet started selecting or visibly targeting.

These seats are islands of red in seas of blue. Either covering or part of a small city, these seats have student, academic and liberal public sector workers. But they also often contain council estates home to more socially conservative elements of the Labour coalition. In such seats the tensions of the Labour coalition are really on show.

The danger hence comes from Labour potentially being attacked from multiple sides, with the liberal parts of the voter coalition moving towards the Liberal Democrats or the Greens and the socially conservative components to the Tories, resulting in a  Conservative gain.

Such seats include Exeter and Southampton Test. The potential squeeze could also signal big problems in two Labour gains from 2015: Hove and Norwich South. Southampton Itchen and Plymouth Moor View fell to the Tories in 2015 due to similar factors.

Of course, there is likely a lot of time between now and the next election. Much could happen in these and many other seats. Ukip could rebound amongst Conservative-leaners, or the Liberal Democrat revival could turn out to be a damp squib. Equally the situation could deteriorate for Labour. Considering the tendency to decline from a high watermark in midterm polls, things are not promising and historic losses could await the party.

–––––––––––––

Chris Terry is an expert in elections and political systems. He tweets at @CJTerry

Photo