With a referendum looming, Kurdistan stands on the cusp of independence – but it would be unwise to think a ‘yes’ vote is already in the bag, writes Gary Kent
The announcement that the Kurds are holding a referendum on independence from Iraq on 25 September has so far been obscured in the swirl of domestic and international events but could be a major factor in the coming radical reassessment of why Daesh emerged in the first place and efforts to make sure such a force never haunts the Middle East again.
Members of parliament will debate the Kurdistan region in parliament today for the first time in three years. Since their debate in January 2014, the position of the Kurds and the viability of Iraq have been transformed. Three years ago MPs focused on how to help make the agreed federal settlement in Iraq work for the Shia majority as well as the Kurdish and Sunni minorities, but prospects of that have receded.
The Kurds had escaped Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1991 and built an autonomous region under the protection of the Western no-fly zone until Iraq was liberated in 2003. They then agreed, after some internal debate, to rejoin Iraq in answer to Western pleas that they do so and with the promise that this time would be different. They agreed to exercise their right to self-determination by returning to Iraq but have long made it conditional on Iraq being federal, pluralistic and democratic
Things went well to start with. The Kurds helped secure a federal constitution in a pan-Iraq referendum in 2005 but its provisions were either not implemented or have been reversed. The Kurds used to portray themselves as ‘the other Iraq’ and highlighted their successes in increasing living standards and in security. But all that came crashing down just after the last parliamentary debate.
First, Baghdad cut all federal budget transfers and then Daesh emerged to cut Iraq into three pieces and came close to destroying Kurdistan, which was saved by Western airstrikes. Even as the Peshmerga resisted Daesh, Baghdad refused to send budget transfers, did not pay the Peshmerga and did not fund the huge costs of Arab citizens who fled to Kurdistan in their hundreds of thousands.
All this caused a calamitous economic crisis which led to Kurdistani workers not being paid for months and soaring unemployment and poverty. The economic crisis exposed the dysfunctional Kurdistani economy which was top-heavy with too many unproductive jobs in the public sector and few in the private as well as a dangerous reliance on oil revenues which were also slashed when the international price of oil slumped massively. These crises also amplified long-standing internal divisions and resulted in some violence and the suspension of their parliament.
Some say it is not the right time for the Kurds to consider independence, although Daesh will be defeated militarily by September and Kurds say their referendum is about providing a mandate for negotiating over several years what is widely called an amicable divorce with Iraq. Resolving the status of disputed territories such as Kirkuk will take time. Kurds argue that they can secure better relations between two sovereign but close neighbours on all the critical issues of trade, security and resources.
They can also argue that the success of the joint effort between the separate forces of the Peshmerga and the Iraqi army in dislodging Daesh from Mosul illustrates the potential for such international co-operation rather than seeking to imprison the Kurds in a state based on simple majority rule which will always disadvantage minorities.
Once Daesh is defeated, we will want to make sure it can never return in any form. Many are sympathetic to the Kurdistani aspiration for independence because it is a strongly pro-Western country that upholds religious pluralism and could be a buffer between the Sunnis and the Shias.
Another argument for statehood is that it would encourage further internal political and economic reform and the new country would be able to bid for international funds to increase their capacity and develop their economic and political weight. They accept what the all-party parliamentary group on the Kurdistan region report call ‘tough love’ or making such assistance conditional on reform.
After so many recent upsets it would not be wise to think a ‘yes’ vote is in the bag. The formal opposition of various countries to the referendum will not stop it proceeding. The next question is how countries such as the United Kingdom can use their diplomatic, economic and political resources to encourage greater unity between the Kurds and the Iraqs as they work out how to stabilise their countries and undermine extremism.
MPs from the all-party group, which marks its tenth anniversary this year, are expected to air the arguments for independence and the need for British observers to monitor the referendum as well as canvassing for measures to build a better bilateral relationship with the Kurds and a bigger British footprint there.
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Gary Kent is the director of the all-party parliamentary group on the Kurdistan region and has visited Kurdistan and Iraq 26 times since 2006. He writes in a personal capacity. @garykent The APPG reports on their last visit are at http://www.appgkurdistan.org.uk/
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