Support for Scottish independence is on the wane, but that can be no excuse to rest on our laurels, argues Pamela Nash
I have lost count of the number of times that people have said to me that the Scottish National party is a ‘busted flush’, and indeed, it is clearly vulnerable at the moment. It is still nursing a bloody nose from June’s election results, the donations have dried up, and after a decade of mismanagement of public services, Scots are questioning the party’s credibility. I would suggest, however, that news of their demise is somewhat premature.
Nationalists remain in power in the Scottish parliament, with access to the machinery of government and the publicity that comes with it. Recent polls still have support for independence at 41 per cent. While this is going in the right direction, it is worth remembering that back in April 2011, a political era – and four Scottish Labour leaders – ago, support for independence in Scotland stood at just 28 per cent. This was immediately prior to SNP winning an overall majority in Holyrood, and a mandate for the referendum.
It would be a grave error to underestimate them, and the power of their passion for their raison d’etre – an independent Scotland. They will seek to exploit any opportunity that arises for their own gain, whether that be Brexit negotiations or eventualities, unpopular Conservative government policy, a weakened Labour party, or whatever they can get their hands on.
So, we must be ready – and we currently have an opportunity to solidify support for Scotland to stay in the United Kingdom.
To do this, we must ensure that the positive arguments for Scotland to stay in the UK are heard. This is not new, but we have an audience more open to hearing it. We know that in terms of our economy, our security and our culture, we are richer in the UK.
We must gently highlight the evidence showing the reality of what we could have faced, for example the recent government expenditure and revenue Scotland figures that showed that our immediate deficit on the planned first day of a separate Scotland would have been £13.9bn; around three times as much as the SNP predicted in its now infamous white paper. All of Scotland should feel relieved that, as a whole, we made the right decision to stay in the UK.
Finally, and most importantly, we must encourage Scotland to move on from the division and come together again. Prior to 2011, only a minority of people had strong feelings about Scottish independence either way; but we were forced to choose a side. Tribes were born.
The day after the referendum result, Gordon Brown called on people to cast aside their ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ posters and badges immediately. It was the right sentiment, but too soon for many people. Most people eventually arrived at this stage – recognised by the SNP pulling back from its calls for a second referendum.
Like most conflicts, it ultimately ends when both sides find common purpose. This is now happening in workplaces, in pubs and in living rooms across Scotland. There is recognition that most on the ‘other side’ wanted a more prosperous country, improved public services and a better quality of life too. The No side just strongly believed these aims would be easier to achieve within the union. It is an argument which has been vindicated by the collapse in oil revenues and the projections for the deficit of an independent Scotland.
We cannot be complacent. Only if we actively continue to promote the positive case for Scotland remaining in the UK, and encourage Scotland to put its divisions aside, will we ensure the independence debate is put to bed.
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Pamela Nash is chief executive of Scotland in the Union. She tweets at @pamela_nash
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