With no forthcoming elections and a new leader, Scottish Labour has the opportunity to get back on track, writes Sheila Gilmore
One thing I hope we can all agree on is that we don’t want another leadership election in Scotland anytime soon. Their regularity has become the subject of jokes; never a good look for a serious political party.
It is not going to be an easy task for Richard Leonard. During the campaign divisions have been re-opened and things have been said (all round) which cut deep into the party, with it being played out as a clash of two ideologies, rather than a matter of who would be the most effective leader.
The best way of bringing people together is ‘doing’ rather than talking. Elections are always good for this, but after a period of non-stop voting since 2011, Scotland is due for a fallow period. The next Holyrood election is not due until May 2021 and the next all-out council elections not until 2022. A general election is likely to come first – but unless forced into it, another soon is something Tory members of parliament of all stripes must be anxious to avoid.
The first ‘big thing’ is the forthcoming Scottish budget announcement in December, where the Scottish National party may, for the first time, make raising revenue a major part of its proposals. When Labour campaigned on using the parliament’s new powers (including restoring the 50p tax rate) at the 2016 Scottish election, the SNP opposed it. Other than dipping a toe in the water by not increasing the higher rate threshold this year, the SNP has been very reluctant to use the new powers. Partly because they do not want to annoy any part of the coalition of support they have built up, and partly because it interferes with their narrative that ‘only independence’ can deliver for Scots.
Both Leonard and Anas Sarwar spoke out on raising income tax. Their detailed proposals varied, but now is the time to come forward with a clear position. Forward planning has been a weakness for Labour. In 2014 we won the referendum on Scottish independence, but had no plan for ‘after’. Our call has been for use of the tax powers. The new leader and his team must be ready for how to respond if the SNP in this budget announce their use.
Council services have been hard hit since 2007 with a combination of a tight council tax freeze (lifted this year) and funding reductions from the SNP greater than those they received from the United Kingdom government. With proportional for local councils, and fairly poor results in May’s council elections, Labour does not control Scottish councils as it once did. However we still have councillors , and in the run up to December 15th, and in the weeks afterwards, we need to come together to show the realities of 10 years of SNP government. If he has not already done so, Leonard should meet Labour council leaders as a matter of urgency to map out the approach. From this constituency Labour parties and union members should be provided with a campaigning framework.
Labour in Edinburgh stood on a council manifesto seeking powers to introduce a ‘tourist levy’ to help balance the needs of residents with the important economic driver of tourism. The new leader should spearhead this in Holyrood. And again by ‘doing’, the differences of the recent contest can be overcome. Other councils will have different key priorities, but the same approach to working together is crucial.
Labour at Holyrood needs to be tactically astute. The SNP does not have an overall majority. They got their budget through this year with Green support, also allowing the Greens to pose as the saviours of local councils because they got a £100m reduction in the planned funding cut. The new leader and his team need to be looking for ways to inflict defeats on the SNP government, working with other parties if necessary. We do not have enough members of the Scottish parliament to waste the talents of any, so Leonard needs to get all his MSPs working on projects, even if not shadow ministers. Relations between our Holyrood parliamentarians and our councillors have not always been as good as they could be. Sometimes it is just down to everyone being ‘busy’ but, for example, a united campaign effort from our Holyrood housing spokesperson and those who speak for housing in our councils could be a formidable force. The leader needs to take the lead in making this happen this time, not just be talked about.
We need to plan beyond the forthcoming Scottish and council budgets. Over the last two years Scottish Labour has begun to expose the reality behind the SNP spin. We need now to move beyond just saying what is wrong but also say how we will do things differently.
One of the SNP’s tactics is that, even when introducing legislation, they go for things which are relatively uncontroversial and small scale, with which an opposition will invariably agree. The SNP looks good, opposition voices are muted and unheard. Some individual MSPs have pushed active campaigns, Claudia Beamish on fracking, Monica Lennon on period poverty being just two. We need more of this, with leadership encouragement. There is also a wealth of experience and ideas among members to draw on.
The SNP were astonishingly complacent in the general election this year. In most constituencies the SNP vote fell substantially. Nicola Sturgeon’s overplaying of her hand on a second independence referendum lost her votes. However the extent of the volatility between 2015 and 2017 must make us wary. We cannot afford to be complacent in our turn and convince ourselves that with so many SNP-Labour marginals down to small majorities the next general election will be easy. We need to be making the political weather, not just reacting to events.
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Sheila Gilmore is a member of the Progress strategy board. She tweets at @SheilaGilmore49