Public opinion has not shifted back to ‘Remain’
‘When I woke up the next morning and realised we’d gone Brexit, I felt like England had won the World Cup!’ enthused Doug, a 42-year-old scaffolder from Harlow in one of BritainThinks’ focus groups this September. Other participants agreed: this was not just a good outcome, it triggered joyous, air-punching celebration. Celebration that was in stark contrast with the sombre mood of many ‘Remain’ supporters that June morning.
Brexiteers and Remainers alike were united in one thing: the surprise – even shock – that they felt at the final vote. Yet, this was a result that had surely been coming for some time. Although polling in the past two decades had tended to favour ‘Remain’, the trajectory of travel was relentlessly towards ‘Leave’ and, for weeks running up to 23 June, our poll of polls was neck and neck – simply too close to call.
Yet mainstream opinion stubbornly refused to acknowledge the polling evidence. Anecdotal evidence trumped the data – as it always does. Apparently everyone saw the sense of ‘Remain’. Speaking at events during the campaign I often asked for a show of hands ‘Who thinks “Remain” will win on 23 June?’ Even the ‘Leave’ campaigners on the platform would put their hands up with a wry smile.
As the campaign wore on, we saw how ‘Leave’s strongest argument – immigration – became more and more vivid in people’s minds, while the strongest argument for ‘Remain’ – the economy – failed to land in a personal way. As one voter put it, ‘I believe that leaving would have a negative impact on the economy – but it won’t make any difference to MY economy’.
This should not have been news. For years, most voters had been unable to perceive any personal gain from being in the European Union (The best that most could dredge up in focus groups was no longer having to keep envelopes of random European currencies in their sock drawer – not the most compelling of benefits). At the same time, the downsides were apparent.
As the dust settles, some ‘Remain’ campaigners, still dazed by events, are calling for a second referendum. The assumption is that people who voted ‘Leave’ must be regretting it by now. This is categorically not the case. ‘Leave’ voters are more optimistic about Britain’s future than ‘Remain’ voters. Sixty-two per cent of all voters feel positive at the moment, and most are firmly of the view that ‘Brexit means Brexit’ – regardless of how they voted.
Where ‘Leave’ voters are less happy, however, is in what they increasingly identify as Theresa May’s lack of a clear plan. They want to see a timetable, with a programme for reducing immigration at its heart. They do not see any conflict between this and the aim of securing a future trade deal, which suggests problems looming for policymakers when the inevitable compromises have to be made.
It is hard to escape the view that the ‘Remain’ camp lost because it lost touch with public opinion. If Labour wants to make the case for Europe in the future it will be crucial not to make the same mistake again.
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Deborah Mattinson is founder of BritainThinks
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