In January 2008, I spent two weeks in Charleston, South Carolina during the Democratic primary election. One Saturday evening, I went with a team of volunteers to a nursing home and heard speeches on behalf of the candidates. A middle aged African-American woman brought with her two large paintings of Mr and Mrs Obama to illustrate her support for the Illinois senator. She explained how painting Michelle had been an ordeal with endless reworkings of her smile and eyes. But Barack, she told us, had virtually jumped off the paintbrush and onto the canvass, as if his spirit were guiding her hand. She went on to explain in Messianic terms her belief that if he were elected, he would heal the wounds of Americans.
With expectations as high as this, President Obama – a pragmatic politician with a desire for consensus – was always bound to disappoint. But suggestions that his presidency is a failure are premature and hysterical.
Last month, the Telegraph breathlessly reported that ‘the decline in Barack Obama’s popularity since July has been the steepest of any president at the same stage of his first term for more than 50 years’. But this decline hides the fact that Obama still has a net approval rating. This time 16 years ago, Bill Clinton was below 50%; and Ronald Reagan was at a similar level to Obama at this stage in his presidency. Indeed, the two Bushes (Junior aided by the support he received following September 11) are the only two presidents since LBJ to maintain approval ratings above 60% at this stage.
And what of the apparent disappoint with Obama’s lack of progress? James Crabtree reports in the current edition of Prospect that ‘Obama’s promise of change remains unfulfilled’ while Mehdi Hasan in the New Statesman referred to ‘Barack W Bush’.
It is worth taking a step back. Although Barack Obama swept to the presidency, his party has – due to legal delays and deaths – only held the crucial 60 Senate seats (which prevent the opposition blocking legislation) for a few weeks of his presidency. This has increased the need for consensus yet the Republican party (with the notable exception of Maine senators Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins) has shown itself unwilling to compromise on the key legislative areas.
But Obama is getting things done. His priorities were healthcare, climate change, and education. Although there were setbacks over the summer, the support of Senator Snowe means that healthcare reform with a public option is possible before Christmas. Once this happens, Obama will focus fully on a cap-and-trade deal (although this may come too late for Copenhagen).
Much of the education reform is taking place without fanfare while the stimulative Recovery Act included $117 billion for measures which acted as a down payment for these reforms. On foreign policy, the promised change of tone has materialised with Obama making speeches in Egypt on American’s relationship with the Muslim world and to the United Nations on internationalism, which changed the terms of debate.
Not all, of course, is rosy. Obama has disappointed many of his liberal supporters with his failure to take faster and firmer action on Guantanamo or torture. Meanwhile, the risk that Afghanistan will become his Vietnam is not to be dismissed. And if the debates over healthcare and climate change seem toxic, just wait for the immigration reform debate next year.
But after just 287 days in office, Obama is making progress. He just turns out not to be the Messiah.