The next election will be fought on three key themes: competence, hope for the future and the economy. Labour’s reputation for competence requires, for example, continuing with public service reform, tackling crime and antisocial behaviour, and demonstrating integrity in all that we do. This has taken a huge battering over expenses, ‘smeargate’ and parliamentary selections. These unsavoury episodes also detract from the debate we should be having – on the future economy and supporting hard-working families and businesses through the recession. Alistair Darling’s budget, with its emphasis on real support now coupled with investment in our future prosperity, was an attempt to move the debate on.
Labour must grasp that opportunity. Our job now is to make the budget relevant to voters, demonstrate the distinct choice between Labour and Tory approaches and hope that forecasts of a recovery at the end of this year come true. If we can do these three things the budget could be a key campaigning tool and call to arms for our members, supporters and voters for an election next year.
Admittedly, headlines and immediate reaction to the budget has been mixed at best. More positive were the vox pops, less so the newspaper headlines. That tells us we need to take our message direct to voters – bypassing the newspaper media which is increasingly lining up behind the Tories. Our message will be different in different communities as we put it in terms of what matters to our constituents – in Leeds West that means talking about the support for 16 and 17-year-olds to stay at school or in training, building more homes and rebuilding a strong and vibrant economy with high-quality jobs.
On a national level, we must force the Tories’ hand – would they stick with the 50 per cent tax rate? What public services would they cut? What would they do with public sector pay and pensions (George Osborne suggested a tougher line on public sector pay the day after the budget)? There are clear dividing lines between Labour and the Tories that we need to exploit. The Tories do not have a clear narrative on the economy and that is one of their greatest weaknesses.
It is clear now that we have to wait until next May for the election. Darling forecast that the economy will begin to recover at the end of 2009 and then pick up through 2010. If the chancellor is correct in calling the upturn then people will be feeling a bit more confident next spring and Labour will also be in a position of authority for next spring’s budget. The success of the budget, and the election result, depends on the accuracy of the forecasts.
Now, more than ever, Britain and the world need centre-left governments – to help us through the downturn and build the future recovery. The challenges we face are ones that the left are more attuned to addressing – how to make regulation work, how to ensure that the poor don’t pay the highest price for the recession, how government can help provide the framework for a more balanced, stronger economy. The Tories are relying on Labour losing the election – they do not have a coherent agenda for what they want to use power for, and there is no enthusiasm in the country for a Cameron-Osborne government. But sadly, too often at the moment, we look like we are happy to do their job for them. Collectively, we must find the confidence to put the case for Labour again, to unite in our mission to win a fourth term and act with a moral integrity which voters rightly expect. The budget sets the tone for the real debate in the year ahead. Let’s stick to that tune rather than dragging ourselves down in a haze of sleaze. If we can focus on policy, and then turn our energy towards campaigning for a fairer Britain, we could still win.