2002 or 1994? For Republicans and Democrats, battling this month over who will get to raise their flag atop Capitol Hill after November 7’s critical mid-term elections, these are the dream – and nightmare – scenarios. And the outcome will not only decide whether George W Bush spends his final two years in office as a lame duck, but also offer some vital clues as to the shape of the political landscape two years before America picks his successor.
The Democrats, shut out of power in Washington DC since losing the White House in 2000, hope to mirror the Republicans’ sweeping gains of the 1994 mid-terms. These brought the party control of the Congress for the first time in 40 years and delivered Bill Clinton, then only two years into his first term, not only a bloody nose but political headaches for the next six years.
The Republicans, on the other hand, fantasise about repeating their triumph in the last mid-term elections of 2002 when they capitalised on the nation’s post-9/11 mood to turn the vote into a referendum on who could best be trusted to keep America safe. The tactic, a dry run for Bush’s successful re-election campaign two years later, worked a treat: the president’s party confounded historical precedents and strengthened their hold on Capitol Hill.
This year, 33 of the Senate’s 100 seats and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives – the two chambers which comprise the Congress – are up for election. Voters in many states will also be choosing their governor, as well as countless other state, local and municipal officials. But the key national battle is for control of Congress. In the Senate, the Republicans currently hold 55 seats to the Democrats’ 45. Eighteen of the seats up for election are currently held by the Democrats, while the Republicans are defending 15. In the House of Representatives, the Republicans hold 232 seats, a majority of 30 over the Democrats (who are also routinely backed by the body’s one independent member).
As the Democrats attempt to make the apparently modest net gains – 15 House seats and six Senate seats – they need to overturn the Republicans’ majorities, they have a strong national wind in their sales. Charlie Cook, editor of the non-partisan Political Cook Report, suggests that the current opinion polls are showing some ‘chilling numbers’ for the Republicans. The number of Americans believing the country is heading on the ‘wrong track’ – traditionally a key indicator of the public mood – exceeds 60 per cent in most polls. President Bush’s approval ratings are below 40 per cent, while that of the Congress itself hovers in the high-20s. This latter figure is particularly ominous for the Republicans: in the five elections since 1974 in which the Congress’ approval rating was below 40 per cent, the party in power lost an average of 29 seats. And, by way of comparison, the Democrats were in better shape on almost all these counts on the eve of the Republican landslide in 1994.
Nationally, this dissatisfaction appears to be boosting the Democrats. Among registered voters, the party has a double-digit lead over the Republicans when people are asked who they would like to see in control of Congress. Democrats, according to the polls, now lead on all the main issues currently concerning Americans, from healthcare to the economy, and petrol prices to immigration. On both the situation in Iraq and the war on terror, the latter the key to the Republican triumphs in 2002 and 2004, the Democrats have now taken the lead. Support for the president’s handling of the war on terror has plummeted among those white working class who were critical to his re-election; the result, say analysts, of the worsening situation in Iraq.
Meanwhile, the scandal surrounding congressman Mark Foley’s inappropriate emails have simply fed a perception of sleaze, already ignited by the close relationships between the corrupt former lobbyist Jack Abramoff and leading Republicans such as the former majority leader, Tom DeLay. On maintaining ethics in government and moral standards in the country, the Democrats are now ahead, with some indications too that the social conservatives – another critical component of Bush’s winning coalition in 2004 – may be less inclined to come out and vote this time.
But, despite all this, the Democrats’ chances of winning control, let alone pulling-off a 1994-style landslide, are rated as only 50-50 by most observers. In part, this reflects what Democratic strategist Ruy Teixeira terms the ‘micro situation’ or the state of play in the individual races around the country that will determine the outcome of the election. Although he believes this has moved in the Democrats’ favour since the spring, the party faces a struggle in the House where, thanks to the creation of ‘safe’ seats by gerrymandering, relatively few ‘swing’ districts – it’s predicted that only 40 to 50 could change hands – actually exist. And in the Senate, the Democrats have little room for error, either. If they manage to hold all the seats they are defending, they’ll still have to pick up six Republican seats. However, the polls in many of the seven most vulnerable ones – Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee and Virginia – suggest the two parties are neck-and-neck, and it’s worth remembering that all but two of these states voted for Bush in 2004.
There is thus something very familiar about the contours of the American political landscape on the eve of this year’s elections. Throughout the 1990s, the Democrats and Republicans fought themselves to a draw in an evenly divided nation, culminating in the presidential election of 2000, the closest in the country’s history. Although President Bush’s re-election in 2004 – the first presidential election since 1988 in which the victor won a majority of the vote – suggested to some that the Republicans were slowly etching out a new majority, others were unconvinced. As America stands on the edge of yet another nail-bitingly close election, that caution looks much the safer bet.
Poll watch
After 12 years in the House of Representatives, 36 year-old black congressman Harold Ford now has his sights on Tennessee’s vacant senate seat. He’s currently running neck-and-neck against his Republican opponent Bob Corker in what experts are deeming a ‘bellweather’ race. If Ford – deemed one of the 50 most beautiful people in the world by People magazine – makes it, it could be a toss-up whether he or Illinois senator Barack Obama becomes the first African American to make it to the Oval Office.
Virginia senator George Allen once harboured presidential ambitions. Now the Republican incumbent is fighting for his political life after using a racial epithet to describe a supporter of his opponent, the tough-talking former Vietnam vet and Reagan cabinet member, Jim Webb.
The poster boy of the Christian right, Pennsylvania’s Rick Santorum is famed for his anti-gay outbursts. Polls show his bid for re-election is doomed, but watch out: he’s already confounded observers once by winning a second term in 2000.
Republicans in Florida had high hopes of unseating Democrat senator Bill Nelson at the beginning of the year. That’s until conservatives managed to land the party with Katherine Harris as their candidate. The face of Republican efforts to stop the Florida recount in 2000, Harris has run an increasingly bizarre senate campaign. Comments suggesting that those who don’t vote for Christian candidates are ‘legislating sin’ mean Nelson is now a safe bet for re-election.
Hilary Clinton is up for re-election in New York. She’ll win easily but a landslide would help propel the former First Lady to the top of the Democrats’ ticket in two years time.
And finally, they’ll be weighing the votes in Ted Kennedy’s re-election campaign in Massachusetts, but don’t expect another dynasty to born in Nevada. Few expect Jack Carter, son of former president Jimmy, to beat Republican incumbent John Ensign.