After the Conservatives’ second successive general election hammering in 2001, the need for the party to become more inclusive was widely recognised. Candidate selection was seen as key to this aim, and Theresa May, then chairman of the party, launched a new drive to select more women, black and minority ethnic (BME) and openly gay candidates. Current party leader Michael Howard has affirmed these aspirations. ‘We must be an inclusive party’, he said. ‘We must represent every section of British society.’
Despite these aims, the Conservatives rejected calls for radical measures such as women-only shortlists, preferring instead to rely on gentle encouragement. Yet even this modest strategy encountered resistance from local associations. And with the general election now less than a year away, the results of this effort are now clear. It has been singularly unsuccessful.
Since 2001, the Tories have made virtually no progress in increasing the representation of women – at the last general election, sixteen percent of candidates were women, compared to only seventeen percent of those selected for the forthcoming election.
Indeed, the Tories are likely to see only a small increase in the number of female MPs. While two women, Theresa Villiers in Chipping Barnet and Maria Miller in Basingstoke, have been selected to replace sitting male MPs, another woman, Gillian Shephard, is retiring – a net increase of only one in the seats they currently hold. And out of the party’s top thirty target seats, only three women have been selected – Anne Milton in Guildford, Virginia Taylor in Hereford, and Caroline Nokes in Romsey. All three seats are currently held by the Liberal Democrats, and the Tories face a tough fight to win them back.
Only if the Conservatives perform strongly will the number of women MPs rise significantly. Eleven women have been selected in seats vulnerable to a five percent swing. However, as a proportion this figure is still slightly lower than the average for all seats. In other words, Tory women are still more likely to be selected in seats they stand no chance of winning.
The party has performed somewhat better at increasing representation among ethnic minorities – albeit from a base of zero. Two BME candidates have been selected in seats currently held by the party – Adam Afriyie in Windsor and Shailesh Vara in North West Cambridgeshire. Another, Sandip Verma, has been chosen for the target seat of Wolverhampton South West, a constituency previously represented by Enoch Powell. Fifteen BME candidates have been selected overall, but the remainder are in seats that the Conservatives stand little or no chance of winning.
Only three openly gay candidates have come to prominence – Ashley Crossley and Iain Dale in the marginal seats of Falmouth & Camborne and North Norfolk, and Margot James in the unwinnable Holborn & St Pancras. Mr Crossley’s selection was overshadowed by a bitter row among local party activists, with widespread accusations of homophobia and an unsuccessful attempt to deselect him.
The backgrounds of the latest crop of Conservative candidates are as narrow as in previous elections. Looking at seats vulnerable to a swing of five percent or less, only three candidates come from a public sector background. In contrast, four of them are former MPs, eight have a military background and thirteen are lawyers.
As in 2001, the candidates selected for the forthcoming general election further entrench the overwhelmingly Eurosceptic character of the Tory party. Of the top 65 candidates who have expressed a view on the subject, only four are regarded as Europhiles. Of the remaining 64, more than half believe that party policy on Europe should be more hardline, while the remainder support the party’s current Eurosceptic position. The disagreement within the party is now not between those who oppose integration and those who do not, but between those who believe the party should campaign heavily on its Eurosceptic credentials, and those who want to give greater emphasis to mainstream issues.
Despite worthy aspirations, it is now clear that the Conservative party’s strategy to present a more inclusive public face has failed. Isolated examples notwithstanding, the typical candidate is still a white, upper-middle class heterosexual male. If the Tories want to really change the profile of their parliamentary party, it will require more than wishful thinking.
Adam Afriyie (Windsor) – Businessman who became the first black Tory to be selected for a safe seat, and who is being heavily promoted as the future face of the party. Conservative majority: 8,889
Nicholas Boles (Hove) – Director of the think-tank Policy Exchange and leading moderniser. Labour majority: 3,171
Peter Bone (Wellingborough) – Businessman once described as ‘Britain’s meanest boss’ because of his vocal opposition to the minimum wage and justification of poverty pay. Labour majority: 2,355
Douglas Carswell (Harwich) – Charterhouse-educated manager for City fund manager Invesco, who previously stood against Tony Blair in Sedgefield. Author of a pamphlet on direct democracy for modernising group C-Change. Labour majority: 2,596
Iain Dale (North Norfolk) – Openly gay founder of Politicos bookshop, seeking to wrest back a seat lost narrowly to the Lib Dems in 2001. Lib Dem majority: 483
James Duddridge (Rochford & Southend East) – Director at the YouGov polling company and former banker, inheriting his seat from the outgoing
Sir Teddy Taylor. Conservative majority: 7,034.
Philip Dunne (Ludlow) – Eurosceptic founder of Ottakar’s Books, attempting to regain seat from the Lib Dems. Lib Dem majority: 1,630
Tobias Ellwood (Bournemouth East) – Former captain in the Royal Green Jackets who now works for law firm Allen and Overy. Campaigned for the victims of the Bali bombing, in which his brother Jon was killed. Filling vacancy created by the retirement of David Atkinson. Conservative majority: 3,434
Orlando Fraser (North Devon) – Well-bred Tory barrister, the son of former Tory MP Sir Hugh Fraser and historian Lady Antonia Fraser, and grandson of the late Lord Longford. Also related to Harriet Harman. Lib Dem majority: 2,984
David Gauke (Hertfordshire South West) – 33-year-old city lawyer and former general election candidate for Brent East. Replacing the retiring Richard Page. Conservative majority: 8,181
Michael Gove (Surrey Heath) – Assistant editor of The Times and prominent moderniser, replacing the deselected Nick Hawkins. Conservative majority: 10,819
Justine Greening (Putney) – Finance manager for Centrica plc. Associated with the modernising wing of the party, having co-authored one of a series of high-profile essays on future Tory policy. Labour majority: 2,771
Jeremy Hunt (South West Surrey) – 38-year-old publisher standing in Virginia Bottomley’s old seat, where he is facing a strong challenge from the Liberal Democrats. Conservative majority: 861
Mark MacGregor (Thanet South) – Former chief executive of the Conservative party and ally of Michael Portillo who was sacked by former leader Iain Duncan Smith amid allegations of plotting. Labour majority: 1,792
Ed Matts (South Dorset) – Businessman and Oxford graduate who is hoping to win back Labour’s most marginal seat. Labour majority: 153
Anne Milton (Guildford) – Former nurse seeking to win Guildford back from the Liberal Democrats, who seized the seat in 2001. Lib Dem majority: 538
Ed Vaizey (Wantage) – Former lobbyist who currently acts as chief speechwriter for Michael Howard. Replacing the outgoing Robert Jackson. Conservative majority: 5,600
Shailesh Vara (North West Cambridgeshire) – Solicitor and vice chairman of the Conservative party, one of only three ethnic minority candidates selected for a winnable seat. Replacing the retiring Sir Brian Mawhinney. Conservative majority: 8,101
Sandip Verma (Wolverhampton South West) – 45-year-old businesswoman of Indian descent, who previously stood against John Prescott in Hull East. Labour majority: 3,487
Theresa Villiers (Chipping Barnet) – Youthful MEP for the London region and former law lecturer at King’s College, who is replacing the outgoing Sir Sydney Chapman. Conservative majority: 2,701