So why and how did Andy Slaughter defy the national swing to the Conservatives? I would highlight three factors: a strong local candidate, an effective, long-running campaign and various electoral issues.
Firstly, the candidate makes a real difference. Andy Slaughter has a great track record of serving the people of Hammersmith for more than 25 years; he grew up in and lives in the constituency and is well known locally; and he is seen as principled with strong values. Three examples: he resigned as a PPS over the Government’s plans for a third runway at Heathrow, an issue which gained a lot of local support; he was untainted by the expenses scandal; he stands up for people on local issues not least their homes, whether it’s council tenants whose homes are threatened with demolition or homeowners whose communities are threatened by planning free-for-all. Andy is widely recognised across the constituency as someone who is on the side of local people. During the campaign he was constantly stopped in the streets by people whom he had helped, both as an MP since 2005 and previously as leader of the council.
Secondly, elections are a marathon and not a sprint. Defeat by the Conservatives in Hammersmith & Fulham (H&F) in the 2006 council elections was a real wake-up call. This was reinforced by the Tories holding an open selection for Shaun Bailey in early 2007. The Labour campaign started almost four years before the 2010 general election, with targeted canvassing every weekend, particularly in key Labour wards. Highly visible knocking on doors was the priority. If Andy was to win, we had to mobilise Labour support and especially in parts of the constituency where we had not campaigned actively. We had one of the highest contact rates across the country, both in the long campaign and the short campaign. We were helped by the fact that the new Conservative council in H&F was making savage cuts to local services as well as planning to demolish council estates. Constant highlighting of these issues by the Labour group on the council and by Andy over a period of more than three years meant that the voters understood what was at stake. This all involved lots of hard work by activists over a long period who were augmented by an influx of volunteers, some who are not party members, in the last two months of the campaign.
Thirdly, a number of factors all worked in Andy’s favour. Not only did we make a lot of contacts with voters on the doorstep, but we got out the vote in the north of the constituency, with big increases in voter turnout in Labour wards. People alienated by the Iraq war in the 2005 general election returned to Labour. Hammersmith has relatively low support for the Liberal Democrats and an effective squeeze on these and other ‘don’t know’ voters helped Labour. And finally there was a disconnect between Shaun Bailey, the media darling nationally, and Shaun Bailey, the Tory candidate who didn’t live in the constituency and who was widely viewed as a fake construct with flakey views. Bailey’s credibility rested on running a youth charity but the charity’s expenses have raised big questions. Despite the continuing gentrification of Hammersmith, Bailey failed to capture Tory votes.
Ultimately there is no substitute for a good candidate, leading a focused and hard-working campaign team. The campaign for the next general election has already started in Hammersmith.
I was Hammersmith’s organizer for nearly two years, till shortly before the general election. I can only echo Steve’s words – about how incredible the result was for Labour, and about the reasons why Hammersmith was able to buck the trend.
Above all, it was hard work on the streets that delivered this victory. We knew that we had more committed volunteers doing more work than the Tories – for example, we had evidence that they had to rely on a paid delivery service for their general leafleting (certainly before the short campaign), while we were able to call on legions of members and volunteers.
Among these volunteers, few (if any) deserve more thanks than Steve himself – his many hours pounding the streets, and particularly the long, windswept landings of the White City estate, were a key part of getting Labour’s vote out.
There was certainly a significant jump in turnout in traditional Labour areas, as well as a marked decline in the Lib Dem vote from 2005. Interestingly, the Lib Dems got fewer votes in the 2010 general election in Hammersmith than they did in the council elections in the Hammersmith wards on the same day – indicating that as many as 1 in 4 people who voted for Lib Dem candidates on their council ballot paper on May 6th voted for Andy Slaughter in the general election.
All in all, lots of lessons. There were many points in the last two years when it looked very bad. Steve said to me himself that there were times when he felt more pessimistic about politics than he ever had done in all his years in the Labour Party. But despite the national picture, we kept on going, and never stopped knocking doors and believing that we could win.
There’s a lot of organization to this kind of campaign, as well: decision makers at the centre need to marshal their volunteers effectively, ensuring that they’re hitting the right areas and that each branch of the party is as active as possible. It didn’t hurt that there were local elections in Hammersmith and Fulham at the same time – so each ward had, at the very least, 3 council candidates working for their own elections, driving up the contact rate and ensuring a visible presence for Labour in every part of the constituency. I was pleased when we made gains, and when we increased our majorities in all of the seats we held – particularly in Hammersmith Broadway ward, where the indefatigable Steve Cowan (H&F’s Labour Group leader) turned the narrowest Labour majority in London into a comfortable 3-figure majority after a bare-knuckle fight with the Tories.
I’m glad to hear that the next election campaign in Hammersmith has already begun. But I hope that my former comrades in Hammersmith have been allowed at least one weekend off – they deserve it!
Here are my thoughts on the importance of the relationship between a a candidate and the voters in the electorate. http://wp.me/pVmMh-1a
It is interesting to read Stephen Burke’s account of victory in Hammersmith. I am not going to enter a debate on the merits of one candidate versus another but, as the Conservative Association Chairman in Hammersmith, I am fed up with the constant inaccurate statements that are put about both by members of A Slaughter’s campaign team and A Slaughter himself. For the record it is simply incrorrect and yet another lie that “Shaun Bailey had at least £500,000 of support from wealthy backers. ” Our acounts, filed with the Electoral Commission, confirm that this is not true. As Shaun once commented my biggest fundraiser has been A Slaughter”. It was true most of the success of our fundraising was the eagerness with which people gave money to support the campaign to ensure Shaun won.
Sadly the local Labour party is constantly bandying around figures that are not challenged enough and they then become fact. This latest is an increase on the already high (and inaccurate figure) that A Slaughter put out to the media a few months ago.
Would Tara Douglas Home be chair of the same local Conservative Party which started its term of office with lies about local schools and set out to close them down from day one. Lies which it used council tax payers’ money to publicise? Lies which ultimately failed to convince anyone outside of the local conservative party but which caused a lot of hurt and lies which Mr Bailey never spoke up about?