Despite an increasingly fickle media, Labour has continued to enjoy an unprecedented high opinion poll rating since the last General Election. Satisfaction levels and expressed voting intentions have remained higher than for any previous government. However, this support has not resulted in corresponding success at the ballot box.
Generally speaking, the higher the turnout in an election, the closer the result is to the opinion polls and the higher the proportion of the vote is for Labour. The result of the next General Election will largely depend on the level of turnout of the coalition of voters that put us into office in 1997.
There are many reasons why certain sections of that coalition may be vulnerable. One of the most potent is the lack of an opposition that can engender the kind of hostility provoked by the last Conservative Government.
But it is more complex than that and we have to take responsibility for enthusing voters with our vision for a second term, building on our economic credibility and record of delivery. People also always vote prospectively. We cannot expect people to cast their vote as a reward for us delivering on our promises. People won’t vote for what they have had, or even what they are getting, but for what they are going to get. Above all, we must establish beyond doubt that we are ‘on the side’ of our voters.
Operation Turnout, the party’s organisational strategy for winning a second term, is extremely simple. It has two objectives. First, to retain every single seat we won in 1997. Second, to strengthen the party in the process. To achieve these objectives we will identify our vulnerable voters – broadly speaking, younger people, those who live in areas in which turnout is low and those who tend only to vote in general elections (who are, therefore, by definition, less engaged in the political process).
Having identified them, we will then communicate three messages. First, Labour’s record of delivery. Second, our vision for a second term. Third, the threat posed by the Tories.
This is not easy. Consumer expectations are rising rapidly. People now expect a first rate, instant on-line, one stop service from every organisation. Politics is no exception. The brand loyalty that used to keep people returning to the same shop for a lifetime is breaking down and the same is true in the political marketplace.
We have essentially the same message to deliver to all voters and will not be falling into the trap laid by the Tories through the heartlands versus ‘Middle England’ debate. However, there must be intense and clear communication if we are to succeed in successfully motivating our voters. In short, we have to build genuine, three dimensional relationships with these people in which they feel valued. A key to this is an early start. Voters will not feel that it is a sincere relationship if they are contacted for the first time shortly before the election.
We must also break down our political messages into the most local forms. A delivery message which can detail the extra amount Labour has provided for a local school is clearly much more powerful than talking in terms of global millions. Candidates are critical advocates and Operation Turnout, therefore, sets out a programme of relationship-building activity that they should undertake. Of course, media profile is important, but this needs to be underpinned with direct voter contact at street level.
The level of turnout is a key indicator as to the health or otherwise of the political fabric of the country. Whilst a good part of our traditional organisation is dedicated to achieving a differential turnout of Labour voters above our opponents, such tactical considerations should not obscure what is a fundamental philosophical difference between us and the Tories.
As social democrats our concern is not simply to organise to get party representatives elected to Parliament. Whilst that is one of our principal aims, we have a broader definition of democracy. Social democracy requires there to be thriving active participation in the political process throughout the community. So, any reduction in turnout is a cause for concern for us – even more because reductions almost always hurt us hardest!
Operation Turnout should be seen in this context. It is essential for our short- term electoral interests – to ensure that we win the election. But it is also intrinsic to our longer term aims and, as such, is linked to the current 21st Century Party consultation and our efforts to modernise all aspects of our operation so that we can be a force for the promotion of democracy throughout the country.